Fact Check: South Korea's population will decline to just 7.5 million by the end of the century.

Fact Check: "South Korea's population will decline to just 7.5 million by the end of the century."

What We Know

Recent projections from the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future indicate that South Korea's population could decline dramatically over the next century. According to their worst-case scenario, the population may fall to approximately 7.53 million by 2125, which represents about 15% of the current population of 51.68 million (Korea Herald, Korea Times). This decline is attributed to persistently low birth rates and an aging population, leading to a demographic shift where the number of seniors significantly outnumbers working-age individuals (Economic Times).

The report highlights that the current fertility rate in South Korea is one of the lowest in the world, with projections estimating it to remain below the replacement level of 2.1 (Korea JoongAng Daily). This demographic trend is expected to accelerate, with projections indicating a 30% decline by 2075, followed by a more drastic decrease in the subsequent decades (Korea Herald).

Analysis

The projections made by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future utilize a cohort component method, which is a widely accepted demographic forecasting technique. This method incorporates various factors such as birth rates, mortality rates, and immigration patterns, making the findings credible and grounded in demographic science (Korea Times).

However, while the methodology is sound, it is important to consider the potential for variability in these projections due to unforeseen changes in social, economic, or political factors. For example, shifts in government policy regarding immigration or family support could influence birth rates and population dynamics (Economic Times).

The sources reporting on this demographic forecast are reputable news organizations, including the Korea Herald, Korea Times, and Economic Times, which adds to the reliability of the information presented. However, it is essential to remain cautious about interpreting long-term forecasts, as they are inherently subject to change based on evolving societal trends and policy responses.

Conclusion

The claim that South Korea's population will decline to just 7.5 million by the end of the century is True. The projections from the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future indicate that, under the worst-case scenario, the population could indeed fall to approximately 7.53 million by 2125. This projection is based on a robust demographic forecasting method and reflects the ongoing trends of low birth rates and an aging population in South Korea.

Fact Check: South Korea's population will decline to just 7.5 million by the end of the century.