Fact Check: Social Security will only pay 81% of benefits starting in 2034.

Fact Check: "Social Security will only pay 81% of benefits starting in 2034."

What We Know

The claim that "Social Security will only pay 81% of benefits starting in 2034" is based on projections from the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees. According to the Trustees Report Summary, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is projected to be able to pay 100% of scheduled benefits until 2033. After that point, the fund's reserves will be depleted, and continuing program income will only be sufficient to pay approximately 77% of total scheduled benefits. However, when considering the combined projections of the OASI and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds, the overall Social Security program (OASDI) is expected to be able to pay 100% of scheduled benefits until 2034, at which time it will be able to pay about 81% of benefits.

This projection was reiterated in various reports, including a MarketWatch article that states, "Social Security’s trust funds are expected to run out of money in 2034," and beneficiaries will receive only 81% of promised benefits at that time.

Analysis

The sources of this claim are credible and come from official reports and reputable news outlets. The Trustees Report Summary is an annual report published by the Social Security Administration, which provides an authoritative overview of the financial status of Social Security and Medicare programs. This report is prepared by the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, who are tasked with monitoring the financial health of these programs.

The MarketWatch article also cites the Trustees' findings and provides context for the projected depletion of the trust funds. Both sources convey the same key information regarding the timeline for benefit payments and the percentage of benefits expected to be paid after the trust funds are depleted.

While the claim is supported by reliable data, it is important to note that projections can change based on various factors, including legislative actions, economic conditions, and demographic trends. For instance, the report mentions that lawmakers have options to address the long-term financing shortfalls, which could potentially alter the projected outcomes (Trustees Report Summary).

Conclusion

The claim that "Social Security will only pay 81% of benefits starting in 2034" is True. The projections from the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees clearly indicate that after the depletion of the OASI Trust Fund reserves in 2034, only 81% of scheduled benefits will be payable. This assessment is based on reliable sources, including official government reports and reputable news articles.