Fact Check: Social Security trust fund may be depleted by 2033.

Fact Check: "Social Security trust fund may be depleted by 2033."

What We Know

The claim that the Social Security trust fund may be depleted by 2033 is supported by the findings of the Social Security Board of Trustees. According to their annual report for 2024, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is projected to have enough revenue to pay 100% of scheduled benefits until 2033. After that year, the reserves are expected to be depleted, and the fund would only be able to pay approximately 77% of scheduled benefits based on continuing income from payroll taxes. This projection has remained consistent with previous reports, indicating that the depletion date has not changed from the prior year (SSA).

Analysis

The reliability of the information comes from the Social Security Administration (SSA), which is the authoritative source on the status of Social Security funds. The SSA's reports are based on extensive data and analysis, making them credible sources for understanding the financial health of the Social Security system. The projections are made using intermediate assumptions that are regularly updated to reflect changing economic conditions and demographic trends (Trustees Report Summary).

Critically, while the OASI Trust Fund is projected to be depleted by 2033, the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is expected to remain solvent until at least 2099. This distinction is important as it highlights that while one component of Social Security faces funding challenges, another remains stable (Trustees Report Summary). Additionally, the combined OASDI (Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance) fund is projected to be able to pay 100% of benefits until 2034, which is a slight adjustment from previous estimates (Trustees Report Summary).

The potential depletion of the OASI Trust Fund raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of Social Security benefits, especially for future retirees. However, it is essential to note that Congress has the authority to make legislative changes to address funding shortfalls, which could include adjustments to benefits, tax rates, or eligibility criteria.

Conclusion

Verdict: True
The claim that the Social Security trust fund may be depleted by 2033 is accurate based on the latest projections from the Social Security Administration. The OASI Trust Fund is indeed projected to deplete its reserves by that year, which would result in a significant reduction in the benefits that can be paid out unless corrective measures are taken.