Fact Check: "Senate bill could leave 11.8 million more uninsured by 2034!"
What We Know
The claim that the Senate bill could leave 11.8 million more Americans uninsured by 2034 is supported by estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to a report published by the CBO, the Senate Republican reconciliation bill would result in significant cuts to Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), totaling approximately $1.02 trillion over the next decade. This bill's provisions are expected to increase the number of uninsured individuals by 11.8 million compared to current law by the year 2034 (CBO Report, New York Times).
The CBO's analysis indicates that these cuts are more severe than those proposed in the House-passed version of the bill, which would increase the number of uninsured by 10.9 million (CBO Report). The Senate bill includes stricter eligibility requirements and funding cuts that would disproportionately affect low-income individuals and families, leading to a higher uninsured rate (New York Times).
Analysis
The CBO is a reputable and nonpartisan agency that provides budgetary and economic information to Congress. Its estimates are based on comprehensive data analysis and modeling, making them a reliable source for understanding the potential impacts of legislation. The CBO's preliminary estimates for the Senate bill highlight that the proposed changes would cut Medicaid enrollment significantly, which directly correlates with the increase in the uninsured population (CBO Report, New York Times).
Critics of the bill, including some Republican lawmakers, have expressed concerns about the potential negative impacts of these cuts on their constituents, particularly in rural areas where access to healthcare is already limited (New York Times). The analysis also notes that while some provisions aim to offset these cuts, such as increased funding for rural health initiatives, the overall impact remains a substantial increase in the number of uninsured individuals.
The reliability of the CBO's estimates is further bolstered by their historical accuracy in predicting the effects of similar legislation. However, it is important to note that these estimates are preliminary and may be subject to change as the Senate continues to amend the bill to address concerns and ensure compliance with legislative rules.
Conclusion
The claim that the Senate bill could leave 11.8 million more uninsured by 2034 is True. The evidence provided by the CBO indicates that the proposed cuts to Medicaid and CHIP are likely to result in a significant increase in the uninsured population. Given the CBO's credibility and the detailed analysis of the bill's provisions, this claim is substantiated.
