Fact Check: Russia wouldn't have started the war if Ukraine did not try to join NATO

Fact Check: "Russia wouldn't have started the war if Ukraine did not try to join NATO"

What We Know

The claim that "Russia wouldn't have started the war if Ukraine did not try to join NATO" is rooted in the complex geopolitical dynamics surrounding NATO's expansion and Russia's historical grievances. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly expressed that NATO's eastward expansion is a significant threat to Russia, claiming it violates promises made to Moscow during the post-Cold War era (source-3). In a speech preceding the invasion, Putin articulated a range of grievances, including NATO's expansion, which he views as an encroachment on Russia's sphere of influence (source-1).

However, the underlying motivations for Russia's actions are more complex than just NATO membership. Analysts argue that Putin's worldview includes a belief in the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians, suggesting that the conflict is also about the legitimacy of Ukrainian statehood and identity (source-1). This perspective indicates that while NATO's expansion is a factor, it is not the sole reason for the invasion.

Analysis

The assertion that Ukraine's NATO aspirations directly caused the war simplifies a multifaceted situation. While NATO's expansion has undeniably been a point of contention for Russia, it is essential to recognize that Putin's motivations are deeply rooted in historical, cultural, and political factors. According to political scientist Paul D'Anieri, Russia's reasons for initiating conflict with Ukraine include not only NATO's eastward movement but also broader ambitions to reassert influence over former Soviet territories (source-4).

Furthermore, the narrative of broken promises regarding NATO expansion is contested. Some historians argue that while there were discussions about NATO's future during the reunification of Germany, no formal agreement was made to prevent NATO from expanding eastward (source-3). This ambiguity contributes to the ongoing debate about the legitimacy of Russia's claims and grievances.

The sources consulted provide a balanced view of the situation, with some emphasizing the role of NATO as a catalyst for conflict, while others highlight the historical and identity-related aspects of Putin's motivations (source-1, source-7). The reliability of these sources varies, but they generally represent a consensus among experts in international relations and history.

Conclusion

The claim that "Russia wouldn't have started the war if Ukraine did not try to join NATO" is Partially True. While NATO's expansion is a significant factor in Russia's grievances and motivations, it is not the sole reason for the invasion. The conflict is also deeply intertwined with issues of national identity, historical narratives, and Russia's broader geopolitical ambitions. Thus, while NATO's role cannot be dismissed, it is essential to consider the wider context to fully understand the complexities of the situation.

Sources

1. Russia's War in Ukraine: Identity, History, and Conflict
2. Ukraine War: Russia's Invasion and Its Global Impact
3. How NATO's expansion helped drive Putin to invade Ukraine
4. Russo-Ukrainian War
5. NATO, explained — the alliance and why it's crucial now
6. Why did Putin's Russia invade Ukraine?
7. EXPLAINER: Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine? - U.S. News & World Report
8. NATO - Topic: NATO's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine