Fact Check: Russia is winning in the war with Ukraine

Fact Check: "Russia is winning in the war with Ukraine"

What We Know

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has seen significant developments since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Over the past year, Russian forces have made incremental territorial gains, particularly in eastern Ukraine, specifically in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Reports indicate that Russian troops have advanced slowly, gaining control of additional territory but at a high cost in terms of casualties, with estimates of around 45,000 Russian troops killed in the past year alone (Ukraine in maps).

Despite these territorial gains, the front lines have remained relatively static for extended periods, with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noting that the front line has barely moved for two years (Ukraine in maps). Ukrainian forces have employed innovative tactics, including the use of drones, which have significantly slowed Russian advances and inflicted heavy losses on Russian troops (Ukraine in maps).

In recent weeks, fighting has intensified, particularly around the strategically important city of Avdiivka, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding their ground against Russian assaults (Al Jazeera). Additionally, while Russia has made some territorial gains, Ukraine has also successfully launched counter-offensives, reclaiming parts of territory previously held by Russian forces (Ukraine in maps).

Analysis

The claim that "Russia is winning in the war with Ukraine" is nuanced and requires careful consideration of the context. While it is true that Russia has made some territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, these have come at a significant cost and have not translated into a decisive victory. The slow pace of Russian advances—approximately 40 km over a year—indicates that while they may be gaining ground, they are doing so with considerable difficulty and loss of life (Ukraine in maps).

Moreover, the situation on the ground is fluid. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated resilience and adaptability, employing tactics that have effectively countered Russian offensives. For instance, Ukrainian military intelligence has reported that they have thwarted several Russian attempts to advance, particularly in key areas like Avdiivka (Al Jazeera).

The credibility of sources reporting on the conflict varies, with the ISW being recognized for its analytical rigor and detailed assessments of military operations (Ukraine in maps). In contrast, state-controlled Russian media often presents a more favorable view of Russian military successes, which may not align with the realities on the ground.

Conclusion

The verdict on the claim that "Russia is winning in the war with Ukraine" is Partially True. While Russia has made some territorial gains, the overall picture is complex. The high casualty rates, the slow pace of advancement, and the effective resistance from Ukrainian forces suggest that the situation is far from a clear-cut victory for Russia. The conflict remains ongoing, with both sides experiencing significant challenges and losses.

Fact Check: Russia is winning in the war with Ukraine