Fact Check: Projected U.S. revenue from the tax will plummet by 2033.

Fact Check: "Projected U.S. revenue from the tax will plummet by 2033."

What We Know

The claim that projected U.S. revenue from taxes will plummet by 2033 is based on data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to the CBO's report, federal revenues are projected to be approximately 18.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2033, a slight decrease from 18.3% in 2023 (CBO Report). The CBO indicates that revenues will decline over the next two years before stabilizing after 2025, largely due to the expiration of certain provisions from the 2017 tax act (CBO Update).

While the percentage of GDP that revenues represent is expected to decrease slightly, the actual dollar amount of federal revenue is projected to remain stable, reflecting a complex interaction between economic growth, tax policy, and demographic changes (CBO Report).

Analysis

The assertion that revenues will "plummet" suggests a significant and alarming drop, which is not supported by the CBO's projections. The CBO anticipates that while revenues will decrease as a percentage of GDP, they will not experience a catastrophic decline. Instead, they will stabilize around 18.1% of GDP by 2033 (CBO Update).

Critically assessing the reliability of the CBO as a source, it is a nonpartisan agency that provides objective analysis and projections based on current laws and economic conditions. However, projections are inherently uncertain and subject to change based on various factors, including legislative changes and economic fluctuations (CBO Report).

Moreover, the context of the claim is important. A decrease in revenue as a percentage of GDP does not necessarily equate to a decrease in actual revenue collected. The CBO's projections indicate that total revenues will remain relatively stable, which contradicts the implication of a "plummet" in revenue (CBO Update).

Conclusion

The claim that projected U.S. revenue from taxes will plummet by 2033 is Partially True. While it is accurate that revenues as a percentage of GDP are expected to decline slightly, the overall revenue collected is projected to remain stable. The language of "plummet" is misleading, as it suggests a more severe decline than what the data indicates.

Sources

1. The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033
2. An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033 - Congressional Budget Office
3. CBO's Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in ...
4. PDF Testimony on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 - Congress.gov
5. Preliminary Analysis of the Distributional Effects of the One ...
6. The 2023 Financial Report of the United States Government
7. Budget and Economic Data | Congressional Budget Office
8. Tax Collections Remain Strong in 2025 Despite IRS ...