Fact Check: "Production of ballistic missiles in Russia increased by at least 66% last year."
What We Know
Recent reports indicate that Russia's production of ballistic missiles has indeed surged significantly. According to data from Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR), shared with the Kyiv Independent, Russia is now producing between 60 to 70 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 10 to 15 hypersonic Kinzhals per month. This marks a substantial increase from previous figures, which reported production of approximately 40 Iskander-Ms and 4 to 5 Kinzhals per month earlier in 2024. The calculations suggest an increase of at least 66.67% at the lower end and up to 88.89% at the higher end.
Additionally, U.S. and European officials have noted that Russia has managed to adapt to sanctions and export controls imposed by the West, allowing its military production to exceed prewar levels (New York Times). Reports indicate that Russia's military production has not only recovered but surged, with estimates stating that they could produce two million artillery shells annually, significantly more than previously anticipated.
Analysis
The claim that Russia's ballistic missile production has increased by at least 66% is supported by credible sources, particularly the data provided by Ukraine's military intelligence. The figures presented by HUR are specific and detailed, indicating a clear increase in production rates. Furthermore, the Kyiv Independent has a reputation for reliable reporting, especially on matters related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Moreover, corroborating reports from sources like Reuters and NBC News further validate the assertion that Russia has ramped up its military production significantly, despite the sanctions. These reports highlight the challenges faced by Western nations in curbing Russia's access to essential components for missile production, suggesting that Russia's ability to adapt and overcome these challenges has contributed to the increase in missile output.
While the data from HUR is a primary source for the specific claim, it is important to note that other reports also reflect a general trend of increased military production in Russia. This includes not just ballistic missiles but also other military hardware, indicating a broader effort to enhance military capabilities.
However, it is essential to consider the potential biases in the reporting, particularly from Ukrainian sources, which may have an interest in portraying Russia's military capabilities in a certain light. Despite this, the convergence of multiple independent reports lends credibility to the claim.
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that Russia's production of ballistic missiles increased by at least 66% last year is substantiated by credible data from Ukrainian military intelligence and corroborated by multiple reliable sources. The significant increase in production rates, alongside Russia's ability to adapt to sanctions, supports the assertion that their missile production capabilities have expanded dramatically over the past year.
Sources
- Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say
- Russia ramps up output of some military hardware by more than tenfold
- Exclusive: Russia's ballistic missile production up at least 66% over ...
- Ukrainian Intelligence Reveals Russia's Missile Production Surge
- Russia's ballistic missile production up at least 66% over ...
- Russia's weapons production has increased dramatically despite sanctions
- Ukraine's Sapsan ballistic missile to enter serial production
- Satellite Photos Show Russia Ramping Up Missile Production
