Fact Check: "Premium costs for a 28-year-old could rise from 1% to almost 6% of income."
What We Know
The claim suggests that premium costs for a 28-year-old could increase significantly, from 1% to nearly 6% of their income. This assertion is rooted in the broader context of health insurance premium changes anticipated for the year 2025. According to a report by the KFF Health News, if the expanded subsidies provided by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are not extended, many individuals, including younger adults, could face substantial increases in their health insurance premiums. Specifically, the report indicates that individuals in the individual market could see their premiums rise significantly, depending on their income levels and the specific plans they choose.
Additionally, the Health System Tracker notes that the average proposed premium increase across various insurers for 2025 is around 7%. This increase is attributed to various factors, including rising hospital prices and the costs associated with new medications.
Analysis
The claim that premiums could rise from 1% to almost 6% of income for a 28-year-old is plausible but requires careful consideration of the context. For instance, a 28-year-old earning around $60,240 (400% of the federal poverty line for a single person in 2024) could indeed see their premium costs rise significantly if subsidies are reduced or eliminated. The California Labor Center projects that if the IRA subsidies are not extended, many individuals could pay hundreds of dollars more annually, which could translate to a higher percentage of their income spent on premiums.
However, the exact percentage of income that premium costs would represent can vary widely based on individual circumstances, including income level, the specific health plan selected, and whether the individual qualifies for any subsidies. The claim does not specify the income level of the 28-year-old in question, which is critical for accurately assessing the validity of the statement.
Moreover, the CMS report indicates that while there are expected increases in premiums, the lowest cost silver plan may still be affordable for many, potentially keeping costs below the 6% threshold for some individuals.
Conclusion
The claim that premium costs for a 28-year-old could rise from 1% to almost 6% of income is Partially True. While there is evidence to support the potential for significant premium increases due to the expiration of subsidies, the actual percentage of income that premiums would represent depends on various factors, including the individual's income and the specific health plan chosen. Thus, while the claim captures a possible scenario, it lacks the specificity needed to be universally applicable.
