Fact Check: "Polls show Trump's bill is underwater by an average of 24 points."
What We Know
Recent polling data indicates that President Trump's proposed legislation, referred to as the "One Big Beautiful Bill," is facing significant opposition among American voters. According to a comprehensive analysis of multiple polls conducted by reputable organizations such as the Washington Post, Fox News, KFF, and Quinnipiac University, the bill is, on average, 24 points underwater. This means that 55% of surveyed Americans oppose the bill, while only 31% support it. This level of unpopularity is reportedly the worst for any major piece of legislation in decades, surpassing even the unpopularity of Trump's 2017 tax cuts, which were about 19 points underwater at the time of their passage.
The polling data also reveals that a significant majority of independents oppose the bill by a ratio of approximately 3-to-1, and strong opponents outnumber strong supporters by a margin of 3-to-1 among registered voters. Furthermore, a substantial portion of respondents believe the bill disproportionately favors the wealthy, with 58% stating it would hurt lower-income individuals, while only 21% believe it would help them (source-4).
Analysis
The claim that Trump's bill is underwater by an average of 24 points is supported by a range of polling data from credible sources. The analysis conducted by political science professor Chris Warshaw from George Washington University reinforces the assertion that this bill is historically unpopular. The methodology used in these polls appears robust, as they aggregate responses from multiple reputable polling organizations, providing a comprehensive view of public sentiment.
However, it is essential to consider the potential biases of the sources involved. For instance, while the Washington Post and Fox News are well-established news organizations, they may have differing editorial slants that could influence how polling data is presented. Nonetheless, the convergence of findings from various sources, including KFF and Quinnipiac University, adds credibility to the claim.
Moreover, the context surrounding the bill's unpopularity is critical. The legislation is perceived as a continuation of Trump's previous policies, which have faced backlash, particularly among independent voters and those who are not aligned with the MAGA movement. This historical context suggests that the negative sentiment is not merely a reflection of current political dynamics but also of broader concerns regarding the implications of the proposed legislation.
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that polls show Trump's bill is underwater by an average of 24 points is substantiated by multiple credible sources. The polling data indicates a significant level of opposition among the American public, particularly among independents and moderate Republicans. Given the convergence of findings from various reputable polling organizations, the claim holds up under scrutiny.
