Fact Check: Polling Inaccuracies Can Occur in Pre-Election Surveys
What We Know
Polling inaccuracies in pre-election surveys have been a significant topic of discussion, especially following the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Research indicates that these inaccuracies can stem from various factors, including selection bias due to non-ignorable partisan nonresponse bias. This type of bias occurs when the likelihood of responding to a poll is influenced by the candidate preference being measured, even after adjusting for other relevant factors (West et al.).
A task force convened by the American Association for Public Opinion Research found that the polling errors in the 2020 election were the largest in 40 years, with polls overstating support for Joe Biden by an average of 3.9 percentage points (Clinton et al.). This discrepancy was attributed to several factors, including an unexpectedly high voter turnout and the reluctance of certain voter groups, particularly Trump supporters, to participate in polling (Clinton et al.).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim that polling inaccuracies can occur in pre-election surveys is robust. The study by West et al. highlights that traditional weighting adjustments may not adequately correct for selection bias, particularly when the nonresponse is related to the very preferences being measured (West et al.). This suggests that even well-designed polls can yield misleading results if they fail to account for the underlying biases in participant selection.
Furthermore, the findings from the task force led by Clinton reinforce this notion. The task force's analysis pointed out that polling errors were not confined to a particular political party but were widespread across various races and methodologies (Clinton et al.). This indicates a systemic issue within the polling process rather than isolated incidents.
While some sources suggest that polling methodologies have improved over time, they also acknowledge that biases persist, particularly in politically polarized environments (Shirani-Mehra). The reluctance of certain voter demographics to participate in polls, as noted in the 2020 election, further complicates the accuracy of pre-election surveys (Clinton et al.).
Conclusion
The claim that polling inaccuracies can occur in pre-election surveys is True. The evidence from multiple studies indicates that biases, particularly selection bias, significantly affect the reliability of pre-election polls. The findings from both academic research and task force evaluations underscore the complexities involved in accurately gauging public opinion prior to elections.
Sources
- Evaluating Pre-election Polling Estimates Using a New Measure of Non-ignorable Selection Bias. Link
- Pre-election polls in 2020 had the largest errors in 40 years. Link
- Disentangling Bias and Variance in Election Polls. Link
- Can we still trust the polls? - USC Today. Link
- Why do election polls seem to have such a mixed track record? Link
- Politikversagen - Definition & Bedeutung im Recht. Link
- What 2020's Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling. Link
- Politikverdrossenheit - Definition & Perspektive. Link
