Fact Check: Pakistan developing ICBM could threaten US security.

Fact Check: "Pakistan developing ICBM could threaten US security"

What We Know

Recent assessments indicate that Pakistan is actively developing its ballistic missile capabilities, which may eventually pose a threat to U.S. security. The U.S. government has expressed concerns regarding Pakistan's missile program, particularly its potential to strike targets beyond South Asia, including the United States. According to a 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment, Pakistan's missile development is viewed as an emerging threat, with the country pursuing increasingly sophisticated missile technology. This includes the development of long-range ballistic missiles, as highlighted by the U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor, who stated that Pakistan is working on missiles that could eventually reach the U.S. mainland (Reuters, CSIS).

In December 2024, the U.S. imposed sanctions on four Pakistani entities involved in the missile program, citing the proliferation threat posed by Pakistan's long-range missile development (U.S. Sanctions). The National Development Complex (NDC) in Islamabad is identified as a key player in this development, responsible for the advancement of Pakistan's ballistic missile capabilities, including the SHAHEEN-series missiles (U.S. Sanctions, Arms Control).

Analysis

The claim that Pakistan's development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) could threaten U.S. security is partially true. While there is credible evidence that Pakistan is enhancing its missile technology and capabilities, the extent to which these advancements directly threaten U.S. security remains a matter of debate among experts.

1. Evidence of Development: The U.S. government has officially recognized Pakistan's missile program as a significant concern, noting that it is developing long-range missiles that could potentially reach the U.S. This is supported by statements from U.S. officials and the imposition of sanctions on Pakistani entities involved in missile development (VOA News, CSIS).

2. Source Reliability: The sources cited are credible, including official U.S. government statements and reports from reputable news organizations. The 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment is a comprehensive document that outlines various global threats, including those posed by Pakistan. However, the interpretation of these threats can vary, and some analysts argue that while the capability may exist, the likelihood of an actual threat to the U.S. is mitigated by various geopolitical factors.

3. Geopolitical Context: It's essential to consider the broader geopolitical context. Pakistan's missile advancements are often viewed in relation to its rivalry with India, which may influence its military strategy more than a direct confrontation with the U.S. Moreover, the U.S. has established diplomatic and military ties with Pakistan, which complicates the narrative of an imminent threat (Arms Control).

Conclusion

The assertion that Pakistan's development of ICBMs could threaten U.S. security is partially true. There is a legitimate concern regarding Pakistan's missile capabilities and their potential reach. However, the actual threat level to U.S. security is nuanced and influenced by various geopolitical dynamics. While the development of these missiles is a significant concern, the context in which they are being developed and the strategic calculations of both Pakistan and the U.S. must be considered.

Sources

1. PDF 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment - armedservices.house.gov
2. U.S. Sanctions on Four Entities Contributing to Pakistan's Ballistic Missile Program - U.S. State Department
3. Pakistan's missile program is 'emerging threat', top US official says - Reuters
4. U.S. Says Pakistan Developing Long-Range Missiles - Arms Control Association
5. U.S. Sanctions on Pakistan's Missile Program Highlight Nuclear Threats - CSIS
6. US says Pakistan developing missiles that eventually could hit US - VOA News