Fact Check: Pahlavi believes Khamenei's regime could collapse by the end of this year.

Fact Check: "Pahlavi believes Khamenei's regime could collapse by the end of this year."

What We Know

Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, has made several statements regarding the current state of the Iranian regime. On June 17, 2025, during the ongoing Iran-Israel War, Pahlavi declared that the Iranian regime had "reached its end and is in the process of collapsing," asserting that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had "gone into hiding and had lost control of the situation" (source-2). He called upon the Iranian people to "rise" and "reclaim" their country, suggesting that a transition to a new government was imminent (source-2).

Pahlavi has also indicated that there is a structured plan for a transitional government, which he claims would be implemented following the regime's collapse. This plan includes a 100-day transition period aimed at establishing a democratic government (source-7). His statements have been reported widely, including by major news outlets, which have noted his appeal to the international community for support in ousting the current regime (source-5).

Analysis

While Pahlavi's assertions about the regime's potential collapse are notable, they lack substantial evidence. His claims are largely based on his perspective as an opposition figure and do not reflect a consensus among political analysts or evidence from within Iran. For instance, while he has stated that Khamenei's regime is crumbling, this assertion has not been corroborated by independent sources or verified intelligence reports (source-4).

Moreover, the context of his statements is crucial. They come during a period of heightened tensions due to the Iran-Israel conflict, which may influence his rhetoric. His call for a nationwide uprising and transition plan appears to be more aspirational than grounded in the current political reality, as the Iranian regime has historically shown resilience against internal dissent (source-8).

Additionally, the sources reporting on Pahlavi's statements vary in reliability. While established news organizations provide some level of credibility, the lack of direct evidence supporting his claims raises questions about their validity. The political landscape in Iran is complex, and predictions about regime change are often fraught with uncertainty.

Conclusion

Needs Research. While Reza Pahlavi's statements about the potential collapse of Khamenei's regime are provocative and garner attention, they require further investigation and corroboration. The absence of independent verification and the speculative nature of his claims suggest that more research is needed to assess the actual state of the Iranian regime and the likelihood of its collapse.

Fact Check: Pahlavi believes Khamenei's regime could collapse by the end of this year.