Fact Check: North Korea Supplying Up 100% Artillery Shells Used in Ukraine

North Korea Supplying Up to 100% of Artillery Shells Used in Ukraine

Introduction

The claim that North Korea is supplying up to 100% of the artillery shells used by Russia in Ukraine has emerged amidst ongoing discussions about military support in the conflict. This assertion raises questions about the scale of North Korea's involvement in the war and its implications for international relations.

What We Know

1. Volume of Supplies: Reports indicate that North Korea has shipped significant quantities of artillery shells to Russia. For instance, South Korean intelligence suggests that North Korea has sent over a million artillery shells since August 2023, with estimates of up to 9.4 million shells being discussed in various analyses 23.

2. Dependence on North Korean Supplies: Some sources claim that Russian forces are increasingly reliant on North Korean artillery shells. A report by Defense Mirror states that North Korea supplied between 50% to 70% of the artillery shells used by Russian forces in Ukraine 7.

3. Shipping Activity: Satellite data and shipping records indicate that Russian-flagged vessels have made numerous trips between North Korea and Russia, transporting thousands of containers. This logistical support is crucial for sustaining Russia's military operations 8.

4. Conflicting Reports: While some sources assert that North Korea could be supplying a substantial portion of Russia's artillery needs, others emphasize that the situation is fluid and the exact percentages are difficult to verify. The New York Times notes that the dynamics of military supply chains can change rapidly in conflict scenarios 4.

Analysis

The claim that North Korea is supplying up to 100% of the artillery shells used in Ukraine is complex and requires careful scrutiny of the sources involved:

• Source Reliability:

  • The Associated Press (AP) and Reuters are generally considered reliable news organizations with rigorous fact-checking standards. Their reports on North Korea's military supplies are based on intelligence assessments and corroborated data 31.
  • The Heritage Foundation, while reputable, has a clear ideological stance that may influence its reporting. It emphasizes the strategic implications of North Korea's actions, which could lead to biased interpretations 9.
  • Defense Mirror and The Moscow Times provide detailed accounts based on satellite data and shipping records, but their methodologies and data sources should be critically evaluated for potential biases or inaccuracies 78.

• Methodological Concerns: The estimates of artillery shell supplies vary significantly, with some sources suggesting that North Korea could be supplying as much as 100% of the shells. This discrepancy raises questions about the methodologies used to arrive at these figures. For instance, the reliance on satellite data and shipping logs must be corroborated with on-the-ground evidence to provide a clearer picture of the situation.

• Potential Conflicts of Interest: Some sources may have inherent biases based on their geopolitical stances. For example, reports from U.S.-based think tanks may emphasize the threat posed by North Korea to support specific policy agendas. This could skew the interpretation of the data presented.

What Additional Information Would Be Helpful

To better understand the extent of North Korea's military support to Russia, additional information would be beneficial, including:

• Detailed shipping manifests and cargo inspections to verify the contents of the shipments.
• Independent assessments from international monitoring organizations regarding the impact of North Korean supplies on the battlefield.
• Insights from military analysts on the operational effectiveness of the artillery shells supplied by North Korea.

Conclusion

Verdict: Mostly False

The claim that North Korea is supplying up to 100% of the artillery shells used by Russia in Ukraine is largely unsupported by the available evidence. While there are credible reports indicating that North Korea has supplied a significant number of artillery shells—estimated between 50% to 70%—the assertion of 100% supply lacks substantiation. The variability in estimates and the reliance on potentially biased sources contribute to this uncertainty.

It is important to note that the situation is fluid, and the dynamics of military supply chains can change rapidly, complicating efforts to ascertain precise figures. Additionally, the methodologies used to derive these estimates are not uniformly transparent, which further limits our ability to draw definitive conclusions.

Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate the information presented and consider the complexities involved in military logistics and international relations. The evolving nature of the conflict means that new data could emerge, potentially altering the current understanding of North Korea's role in supplying artillery to Russia.

Sources

1. Inside North Korea's vast operation to help Russia's war on Ukraine - Reuters. Link
2. North Korea in Ukraine: Analyzing Authoritarian Cooperation - Army War College. Link
3. South Korea's spy agency says North Korea shipped more than a million artillery shells to Russia - AP News. Link
4. History Turns Upside Down in a War Where the Koreas Are Suppliers - New York Times. Link
5. South Korea to lend 500,000 rounds of artillery shells to US - Reuters. Link
6. Ukraine Needs South Korean Artillery Shells, Poland’s Prime Minister Says - New York Times. Link
7. North Korea Supplied 50%-70% of Artillery Shells Used by Russia in Ukraine - Defense Mirror. Link
8. North Korea Supplying Up to 100% of Russian Artillery Shells Used in Ukraine - The Moscow Times. Link
9. North Korea Sent 8 Million Artillery Shells to Ukraine. Next Up: Troops - The Heritage Foundation. Link
10. North Korea Sent Russia Over 4 Million Shells, Fueling Putin - KyivPost. Link