Fact Check: New bill projected to increase federal deficit by $5 trillion!

Fact Check: "New bill projected to increase federal deficit by $5 trillion!"

What We Know

The claim that a new bill will increase the federal deficit by $5 trillion is misleading. The bill in question, known as the H.R. 1, One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025, has been analyzed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to the CBO's dynamic estimate, the bill is projected to increase the primary deficit by approximately $2.4 trillion over the period from 2025 to 2034, not $5 trillion as claimed (CBO).

Moreover, when accounting for macroeconomic effects, the CBO estimates that the overall increase in the deficit would be about $2.8 trillion over the same period, which is significantly lower than the $5 trillion figure (CBO).

Analysis

The assertion that the new bill will add $5 trillion to the federal deficit appears to stem from a misunderstanding or misrepresentation of the CBO's findings. The CBO's analysis indicates that while the bill does indeed increase the deficit, the total increase is projected to be around $2.8 trillion, which includes a reduction in revenues and an increase in interest payments due to higher debt levels (CBO).

Additionally, other analyses, such as one from the White House, suggest that the bill could potentially reduce deficits by $11.1 trillion through various economic growth measures and spending cuts, further complicating the narrative around the bill's financial impact (White House).

The claim of a $5 trillion increase may also be conflated with discussions about raising the federal borrowing limit, which has been proposed to be increased by $5 trillion in a separate context, but this is not directly linked to the deficit increase attributed to H.R. 1 (Reuters, NPR).

Overall, the sources discussing the deficit increase vary in their reliability. The CBO is a nonpartisan agency known for its thorough economic analyses, while the White House's analysis may carry some bias as it supports the administration's agenda. Reports from news outlets like Reuters and NPR provide context but should be interpreted carefully, as they may also reflect political biases.

Conclusion

Verdict: False. The claim that the new bill will increase the federal deficit by $5 trillion is not supported by the CBO's analysis, which estimates a total increase of approximately $2.8 trillion over the 2025-2034 period. The $5 trillion figure appears to be a misrepresentation or conflation with other legislative discussions, particularly regarding the debt ceiling, which is a separate issue.