Fact Check: Nearly 12 million more people could be uninsured by 2034 due to Medicaid changes.

Fact Check: "Nearly 12 million more people could be uninsured by 2034 due to Medicaid changes."

What We Know

Recent estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicate that the current Senate Republican reconciliation bill would lead to an increase of approximately 11.8 million uninsured individuals by 2034 due to significant cuts to Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) (CBO Estimates). This figure is notably higher than the 10.9 million projected increase in uninsured individuals resulting from the House-passed version of the same bill (New York Times).

The Senate bill proposes to cut federal Medicaid and CHIP spending by $1.02 trillion over the next decade, which is 18% larger than the House bill's proposed cuts of $863.4 billion (CBO Estimates). The cuts are driven by various provisions, including restrictions on provider taxes and eligibility changes for certain immigrant populations (The Hill).

Analysis

The CBO's estimates are based on a thorough analysis of the proposed legislation, which includes provisions that would tighten eligibility and impose new work requirements for Medicaid recipients (Axios). These changes are expected to disproportionately affect low-income individuals and families, leading to a significant loss of coverage.

The reliability of the CBO as a source is well-established; it is a non-partisan agency that provides objective analyses of budgetary and economic issues. However, it is important to note that these estimates are preliminary and may be subject to change as the legislation evolves (Washington Post). Critics of the bill have raised concerns about the potential negative impacts on health care access, particularly in rural areas where Medicaid plays a crucial role in providing coverage (The Hill).

While some sources project even higher numbers of uninsured individuals—up to 17 million—due to broader policy changes beyond just Medicaid cuts (KFF)—the specific claim regarding the 11.8 million increase is well-supported by the CBO's analysis and is consistent across multiple reputable sources (Axios, New York Times).

Conclusion

The claim that "nearly 12 million more people could be uninsured by 2034 due to Medicaid changes" is True. The CBO's analysis provides a clear basis for this assertion, indicating that the proposed cuts in the Senate Republican reconciliation bill would indeed lead to a substantial increase in the number of uninsured individuals.

Fact Check: Nearly 12 million more people could be uninsured by 2034 due to Medicaid changes.