Fact Check: "NATO agreed to not expand to the east"
What We Know
The claim that NATO agreed not to expand eastward has its roots in discussions between Western leaders and Soviet officials during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Notably, U.S. Secretary of State James Baker assured Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not move "one inch eastward" during a meeting on February 9, 1990. This assurance was part of a broader set of discussions regarding the reunification of Germany and the security interests of the Soviet Union (source-1).
Declassified documents reveal that multiple Western leaders, including Baker, Gorbachev, and West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, engaged in discussions where the principle of not expanding NATO was emphasized. For instance, Genscher, the West German Foreign Minister, articulated that NATO should not expand its territory towards the east, thereby addressing Soviet security concerns (source-1).
However, these discussions did not culminate in a formal treaty or written agreement prohibiting NATO's expansion. Robert Zoellick, a participant in the negotiations, stated that Gorbachev himself acknowledged there was no explicit promise made against NATO enlargement (source-2). Furthermore, the treaty on German unification did not include any limitations on NATO's future expansion (source-2).
Analysis
The evidence surrounding the claim is mixed. On one hand, there are credible accounts and declassified documents indicating that Western leaders provided verbal assurances to Soviet officials about NATO's non-expansion. This has led to a widespread belief that a promise was made. The phrase "not one inch eastward" has become emblematic of this assurance (source-1).
On the other hand, the lack of a formal written agreement or treaty means that the claim cannot be fully substantiated as a binding promise. Zoellick's recollections suggest that the Soviets did not perceive these assurances as legally binding, and there was no expectation that Eastern European countries would be precluded from joining NATO in the future (source-2). This perspective is echoed by various analysts who argue that the focus at the time was primarily on German unification rather than the future of NATO's membership (source-3).
The reliability of the sources varies. The declassified documents from the National Security Archive provide a primary source of information, while Zoellick's firsthand account offers a personal perspective that may be subject to interpretation. Additionally, the media coverage surrounding these events often reflects the political narratives of the time, which can introduce bias (source-6).
Conclusion
The claim that NATO agreed not to expand eastward is Partially True. While there were assurances made by Western leaders to Soviet officials regarding NATO's expansion, these were not formalized into a binding agreement. The lack of a written promise and the subsequent actions of NATO to expand into Eastern Europe complicate the narrative. Thus, the essence of the claim holds some truth, but it is not entirely accurate without acknowledging the nuances and lack of formal commitments.
