Fact Check: Medicaid expansion in NC reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33% overnight!

Fact Check: "Medicaid expansion in NC reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33% overnight!"

What We Know

The claim that Medicaid expansion in North Carolina (NC) reduced the percentage of uninsured patients from 50% to 33% "overnight" is based on the state's recent expansion of Medicaid eligibility, which took effect in December 2023. This expansion allows individuals with incomes up to 138% of the Federal Poverty Level to qualify for Medicaid, potentially covering up to 600,000 individuals who were previously uninsured or underinsured (Preventive Care Needs of the North Carolina Medicaid).

However, the specific figures of 50% and 33% are not substantiated by current data. Prior to the expansion, estimates indicated that around 294,000 individuals were in the Medicaid expansion population in 2022, with a significant portion lacking a regular source of care (Preventive Care Needs of the North Carolina Medicaid). The claim of an immediate drop in uninsured rates is misleading, as comprehensive data reflecting the impact of the expansion on uninsured rates will take time to gather and analyze.

Analysis

The assertion of an "overnight" reduction in uninsured rates lacks empirical support. While Medicaid expansion is associated with a decrease in the uninsured rate, the transition is not instantaneous. Research indicates that states that have expanded Medicaid have seen significant reductions in uninsured rates, with some studies reporting decreases ranging from 13.4% to 73% depending on various factors (Evaluating Medicaid Expansion Benefits for Patients with).

Moreover, the CDC's data suggests that non-Medicaid expansion states tend to have higher uninsured rates, but specific figures for NC's uninsured rate before and after the expansion are not yet available (National Health Statistics Reports - Centers for Disease Control and). The claim's reliance on specific percentages without a clear timeline or source makes it less credible.

The potential for a significant reduction in uninsured rates exists, but it is contingent upon the effective implementation of the expansion and the ability of newly eligible individuals to access care. The current data indicates that many in the expansion population still face unmet healthcare needs, which could affect the overall impact of the expansion on uninsured rates (Preventive Care Needs of the North Carolina Medicaid).

Conclusion

Verdict: Partially True
While Medicaid expansion in North Carolina is expected to reduce the number of uninsured individuals significantly, the specific claim that it reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33% "overnight" is misleading. The actual impact of the expansion will take time to assess fully, and the percentages cited lack current empirical support. The expansion does have the potential to improve access to healthcare for many, but immediate results should not be overstated.

Sources

1. National Health Statistics Reports - Centers for Disease Control and
2. Preventive Care Needs of the North Carolina Medicaid ...
3. Evaluating Medicaid Expansion Benefits for Patients with ...
4. Who’s eligible for Medicaid? - HHS.gov
5. What is the Medicaid program? - HHS.gov
6. What’s the difference between Medicare and Medicaid? - HHS.gov
7. Where can I find a doctor that accepts Medicare and Medicaid?
8. 2025 Federal Poverty Level Standards | Guidance Portal