Fact Check: Medicaid expansion in NC reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33%.

Fact Check: "Medicaid expansion in NC reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33%."

What We Know

North Carolina expanded its Medicaid program in December 2023, allowing individuals with incomes up to 138% of the Federal Poverty Level to qualify for coverage. This expansion is expected to cover approximately 600,000 individuals who were previously uninsured or underinsured, many of whom fell into the "Medicaid gap"—those earning too little to qualify for premium subsidies but not meeting the categorical criteria for Medicaid (Spencer et al., 2024) [source-1].

Prior to the expansion, North Carolina had one of the highest uninsured rates in the country, with estimates indicating that around 50% of eligible individuals were uninsured (Spencer et al., 2024) [source-1]. The claim that Medicaid expansion reduced the uninsured rate from 50% to 33% suggests a significant impact on health insurance coverage among low-income adults. However, comprehensive data reflecting this specific change in uninsured rates post-expansion is not yet available, as the expansion was only recently implemented.

Analysis

The claim that Medicaid expansion in North Carolina reduced the uninsured rate from 50% to 33% lacks direct evidence and requires further investigation. The data from the Preventive Care Needs of the North Carolina Medicaid Expansion Population indicates that while the expansion is expected to significantly increase the number of insured individuals, the actual impact on the uninsured rate will take time to assess fully.

The study highlights that in 2022, prior to the expansion, a significant portion of the population still faced unmet healthcare needs, with only 36.7% of the newly eligible population reporting a regular source of care (Spencer et al., 2024) [source-1]. Furthermore, the expansion's effects on the uninsured rate will depend on various factors, including the speed of enrollment and the capacity of healthcare systems to accommodate new patients (Spencer et al., 2024) [source-1].

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also provide insights into trends in uninsured rates across states, noting that states that expanded Medicaid typically saw reductions in uninsured rates, but specific figures for North Carolina post-expansion are not yet documented (CDC, 2023) [source-2].

Given the recent implementation of the expansion and the complexities involved in measuring its impact, it is premature to confirm the specific reduction in uninsured rates claimed.

Conclusion

Verdict: Needs Research
The assertion that Medicaid expansion in North Carolina reduced the uninsured rate from 50% to 33% is not substantiated by current data. While the expansion is expected to significantly impact insurance coverage, comprehensive data reflecting these changes will take time to emerge. Further research is needed to accurately assess the effects of Medicaid expansion on the uninsured rate in North Carolina.

Sources

1. Preventive Care Needs of the North Carolina Medicaid Expansion Population. Retrieved from PMC
2. National Health Statistics Reports - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved from CDC
3. Health Status and Access to Care for the North Carolina Medicaid Expansion Population. Retrieved from PMC
4. Violence Against the Poor - UNC School of Law. Retrieved from UNC Law
5. Medicaid Annual Report. Retrieved from NCDHHS
6. Who Could Medicaid Reach with Expansion in North Carolina. Retrieved from KFF