Fact Check: Medicaid expansion has reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33%.

Fact Check: "Medicaid expansion has reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33%."

What We Know

The claim that Medicaid expansion has reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33% is based on data regarding uninsured rates before and after the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and its Medicaid expansion provisions. According to a report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there is evidence that Medicaid expansion has significantly reduced the number of uninsured individuals in states that opted for it. Specifically, the report notes that uninsured rates in states that expanded Medicaid saw substantial declines.

A study published in the journal Diabetes Care found that in 2012, 39% of the population in certain regions (the Diabetes Belt) were uninsured, and by 2016, this figure had dropped to 13% in expansion states, indicating a significant impact of Medicaid expansion on insurance coverage (Lobo et al.). The study also highlighted that uninsured rates were notably higher in non-expansion states, suggesting that Medicaid expansion played a crucial role in reducing uninsured rates.

Analysis

While the claim suggests a specific reduction from 50% to 33%, the data does not directly support this exact statistic. The CDC report indicates that uninsured rates can vary widely based on geographic and demographic factors. The Diabetes Care study provides a broader perspective, showing that uninsured rates decreased from 39% to 13% in specific counties, which is a more substantial drop than the claim suggests.

It is important to note that the original claim may have generalized the data without accounting for the specific populations and regions studied. The reported decrease to 33% could reflect a broader trend but lacks the precise data to confirm this exact figure across all states or demographics. Furthermore, the studies referenced are credible, with the Diabetes Care study being peer-reviewed and published in a reputable journal, which adds to the reliability of the findings (Lobo et al.).

However, the claim's wording could mislead by implying a uniform reduction across all Medicaid expansion states without acknowledging the variability in uninsured rates based on local conditions and demographics.

Conclusion

The verdict on the claim is Partially True. While there is substantial evidence that Medicaid expansion has led to a significant reduction in uninsured rates, the specific figures cited (from 50% to 33%) do not accurately reflect the data available. The actual reductions vary by region and demographic, and the claim oversimplifies a complex issue.

Sources

1. National Health Statistics Reports - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2. Trends in Uninsured Rates Before and After Medicaid Expansion in Counties Within and Outside of the Diabetes Belt
3. Medicaid Expansion under the Affordable Care Act
4. Who’s eligible for Medicaid? - HHS.gov
5. What is the Medicaid program? - HHS.gov
6. What’s the difference between Medicare and Medicaid? - HHS.gov
7. Where can I find a doctor that accepts Medicare and Medicaid? - HHS.gov
8. 2025 Federal Poverty Level Standards | Guidance Portal