Fact Check: Medicaid expansion has reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33%!

Fact Check: "Medicaid expansion has reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33%!"

What We Know

The claim that Medicaid expansion has reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33% is based on data regarding the uninsured rates before and after the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). According to a report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, uninsured rates among low-income adults have significantly decreased in states that expanded Medicaid. Specifically, the report indicates that in 2012, the uninsured rate was approximately 39% in the Diabetes Belt (a region with high diabetes prevalence) and 34% in non-Belt counties. By 2016, these rates fell to 13% and 15%, respectively, in states that expanded Medicaid.

Furthermore, a study published in the Journal of Diabetes found that Medicaid expansion was associated with a reduction in uninsured rates by 12.3% in Diabetes Belt counties and 4.9% in non-Belt counties. This suggests a substantial impact of Medicaid expansion on reducing uninsured rates, particularly in areas with higher health disparities.

Analysis

While the claim presents a clear reduction in uninsured rates, it simplifies the data. The statement "from 50% to 33%" does not directly reflect the findings from the studies. The actual data shows that uninsured rates in specific regions (like the Diabetes Belt) decreased from 39% to 13%, and in non-Belt counties from 34% to 15% after Medicaid expansion. The claim may misrepresent the overall uninsured rate by not specifying the context or the populations being discussed.

The sources used to support this claim are credible. The CDC report is a reliable government source that provides statistical data on health insurance coverage. The study from the Journal of Diabetes (source-2) is peer-reviewed and focuses on the effects of Medicaid expansion on uninsured rates, adding validity to the findings. However, the claim's wording could lead to misunderstandings about the actual figures and the populations affected.

Conclusion

The claim that "Medicaid expansion has reduced uninsured patients from 50% to 33%" is Partially True. While it is accurate that Medicaid expansion has significantly reduced uninsured rates, the specific figures presented are misleading without proper context. The actual reductions vary by region and demographic, and the claim does not accurately reflect the data from reliable sources.

Sources

1. National Health Statistics Reports - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC
2. Trends in Uninsured Rates Before and After Medicaid Expansion in Counties Within and Outside of the Diabetes Belt Journal of Diabetes
3. Medicaid Expansion under the Affordable Care Act PMC
4. Who’s eligible for Medicaid? - HHS.gov HHS
5. What is the Medicaid program? - HHS.gov HHS
6. What’s the difference between Medicare and Medicaid? - HHS.gov HHS
7. Where can I find a doctor that accepts Medicare and Medicaid? - HHS.gov HHS
8. 2025 Federal Poverty Level Standards | Guidance Portal CMS