Fact Check: Mass deportations will significantly increase productivity and per-capita earnings in the U.S.

Fact Check: "Mass deportations will significantly increase productivity and per-capita earnings in the U.S."

What We Know

The claim that mass deportations will significantly increase productivity and per-capita earnings in the U.S. is contradicted by extensive research and economic analysis. According to a report by the Joint Economic Committee, mass deportations would lead to a significant reduction in economic growth, shrinking the labor force, and increasing costs for Americans. Specifically, it estimates that deporting millions of undocumented immigrants could reduce the U.S. GDP by as much as 7.4% by 2028, resulting in substantial job losses for U.S.-born workers as well (source-1).

Research from the American Immigration Council supports these findings, indicating that mass deportations could lead to a loss of $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion in GDP and significantly impact industries reliant on immigrant labor, such as agriculture and construction (source-5). Furthermore, a study published by the Brookings Institution highlights that deportations historically have led to negative labor market outcomes for both undocumented immigrants and U.S.-born workers (source-3).

Analysis

The evidence overwhelmingly indicates that mass deportations would not lead to increased productivity or per-capita earnings. Instead, they would likely result in labor shortages in critical sectors, driving up costs for consumers. For instance, the Peterson Institute for International Economics projects that deporting 1.3 million undocumented immigrants could raise prices by 1.5% by 2028, while deporting 8.3 million could increase prices by 9.1% (source-1).

Moreover, past deportation initiatives have shown that for every half a million immigrants removed from the labor force, approximately 44,000 U.S.-born workers lose their jobs (source-1). This suggests that the labor market does not simply absorb these losses by hiring U.S.-born workers, as many industries would face significant labor shortages.

The sources cited are from reputable organizations and research institutions, including the American Immigration Council and the Brookings Institution, which lend credibility to the findings. The analyses are based on empirical data and economic modeling, making them reliable for assessing the potential impacts of mass deportations.

Conclusion

Verdict: False
The claim that mass deportations will significantly increase productivity and per-capita earnings in the U.S. is false. Evidence from multiple studies indicates that mass deportations would likely lead to decreased economic growth, increased costs for consumers, and job losses for U.S.-born workers. The economic consequences of such a policy would be detrimental, contradicting the assertion that it would enhance productivity and earnings.

Sources

1. Mass Deportations Would Deliver a Catastrophic Blow to the U.S. Economy
2. The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Residents
3. The labor market impact of deportations
4. Mass Deportations Would Deliver a Catastrophic Blow to the U.S. Economy
5. Mass Deportation
6. The Economic Costs of Mass Deportations of Long-Time Residents
7. Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Economy, and Its Communities
8. Social and Economic Effects of Expanded Deportation Measures