Fact Check: Mass deportations could wipe out $275 billion in California's economic output.

Published June 20, 2025

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VERDICT

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# Fact Check: "Mass deportations could wipe out $275 billion in California's economic output." ## What We Know A recent study conducted by the Bay Ar...

Fact Check: "Mass deportations could wipe out $275 billion in California's economic output."

What We Know

A recent study conducted by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute and UC Merced public health Professor Maria-Elena De Trinidad Young estimates that mass deportations of undocumented residents in California could lead to a loss of approximately $275 billion in the state's economic output. This figure is based on the significant role that undocumented workers play in various industries, including agriculture and hospitality, which are critical to California's economy, valued at $4.1 trillion, making it the fourth-largest in the world (source-1, source-3).

The study highlights that about 1.5 million undocumented residents constitute roughly 8% of California's workforce. It also suggests that the deportation of these individuals would result in a loss of $23 billion annually in tax revenue, which would adversely affect funding for public services (source-4). Furthermore, the report indicates that undocumented workers contribute significantly to the state's economy, generating 5% of its overall economic activity, a figure that increases to 9% when considering the ripple effects of their spending (source-1).

Analysis

The claim that mass deportations could wipe out $275 billion in California's economic output is supported by a comprehensive study that combines quantitative economic analysis with qualitative interviews. The study's methodology involved in-depth interviews with nearly 40 stakeholders, including business leaders and community officials, which adds credibility to its findings. The reliance on multiple data sources and the backing from the California Health Care Foundation further enhance the study's reliability (source-1).

Critics might argue that economic models predicting such substantial losses can be speculative. However, the study's authors emphasize the integral role of undocumented workers in essential sectors, particularly in agriculture, where they represent a significant portion of the labor force (source-1, source-6). The potential economic disruption highlighted in the study aligns with broader economic principles regarding labor supply and demand, suggesting that the loss of a substantial workforce would indeed have severe repercussions.

Moreover, the study's findings are corroborated by other news reports and analyses that echo the projected economic impacts of mass deportations (source-3, source-4). This convergence of evidence from various credible sources strengthens the argument that the claim is valid.

Conclusion

Verdict: True
The assertion that mass deportations could wipe out $275 billion in California's economic output is substantiated by a thorough study that combines quantitative data with qualitative insights. The significant role of undocumented workers in the state's economy, coupled with the projected loss of tax revenue and disruption to key industries, supports the conclusion that such deportations would have a crippling effect on California's economy.

Sources

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