Fact Check: Mamdani's first-choice support jumps from 18% to 27%!

Fact Check: "Mamdani's first-choice support jumps from 18% to 27%!"

What We Know

The claim that Zohran Mamdani's first-choice support increased from 18% to 27% is based on recent polling data. According to a Marist College poll, Mamdani's support indeed rose from 18% to 27% among likely Democratic primary voters. This increase is significant as it reflects a shift in voter sentiment just before the primary election. The same poll indicated that Andrew Cuomo, the frontrunner, had his lead cut in half, going from a 19-point advantage to an 11-point lead over Mamdani, suggesting a competitive race as the election approaches (New York Post).

The polling data also highlighted that Mamdani's support among Latino voters surged to 41%, up from just 20% in the previous month, which could have contributed to his overall increase in first-choice support (New York Post).

Analysis

The claim is supported by multiple polling sources, particularly the Marist College poll, which is a reputable polling organization known for its accuracy in political surveys. The increase from 18% to 27% is clearly documented in their findings, making the claim factually correct (Marist Poll).

However, it is essential to consider the context of these numbers. The polling data reflects a snapshot in time and can be influenced by various factors, including recent endorsements and shifts in voter demographics. For instance, Mamdani received an endorsement from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, which may have bolstered his appeal among younger voters and Latino communities (New York Post).

While the increase in support is significant, it is also important to note that Cuomo still maintains a lead in the polls. The dynamics of ranked-choice voting further complicate the situation, as the final outcomes can differ from initial first-choice preferences due to the elimination of candidates and redistribution of votes (Forward).

Conclusion

The claim that Mamdani's first-choice support jumped from 18% to 27% is Partially True. While the polling data confirms this increase, it is crucial to understand that these numbers are part of a broader electoral context where Cuomo remains the frontrunner. The dynamics of the race, including voter demographics and the impact of endorsements, play a significant role in interpreting these figures.