Fact Check: Mamdani surged 30 points in polls against Cuomo in just months.

Fact Check: "Mamdani surged 30 points in polls against Cuomo in just months."

What We Know

The claim that Zohran Mamdani surged 30 points in polls against Andrew Cuomo is rooted in recent polling data from the New York City mayoral race. According to a Marist poll conducted between June 9 and 12, 2025, Mamdani's support among likely voters increased from 18% in May to 27% in June, indicating a rise of 9 percentage points. Meanwhile, Cuomo's support remained relatively stable at around 38%. This suggests that Mamdani did indeed gain significant ground, cutting Cuomo's lead by nearly half.

Further corroboration comes from an Emerson College poll that shows Mamdani's support rising from just 1% in February to 32% by June. This represents a dramatic increase, although it does not precisely equate to a 30-point surge against Cuomo, who was polling at 33% during the same period. The Emerson poll also indicated that Mamdani could potentially overtake Cuomo in a ranked-choice voting simulation, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment.

Analysis

While the claim that Mamdani surged 30 points is partially accurate, it requires context to fully understand its implications. The increase in Mamdani's support is indeed notable, but it is essential to clarify that the 30-point figure is not a direct comparison of polling numbers at the same time. Instead, it reflects a change over several months, with Mamdani's support rising significantly while Cuomo's remained relatively static.

The New York Post and The Hill also reported on Mamdani's rise, emphasizing that he has gained traction among younger voters and those identifying as very liberal. However, it is critical to assess the reliability of these sources. The New York Post is known for its sensationalist reporting, which may introduce bias, while The Hill is generally regarded as a more balanced source.

Moreover, the Marist poll's margin of error of 4.3% indicates that while Mamdani's rise is significant, the exact numbers should be interpreted with caution. The polls also did not capture the full impact of recent events, such as debates and endorsements, which could further influence voter preferences.

Conclusion

The verdict on the claim that "Mamdani surged 30 points in polls against Cuomo in just months" is Partially True. While Mamdani has indeed made substantial gains in polling numbers, the claim exaggerates the extent of his surge by implying a direct 30-point increase against Cuomo, which is not supported by the available data. Instead, Mamdani's rise reflects a complex shift in voter sentiment over several months, rather than a straightforward numerical leap.