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Fact Check: JP Morgan warns oil could hit $130 amid Middle East conflict.

Fact Check: JP Morgan warns oil could hit $130 amid Middle East conflict.

Published June 22, 2025
by TruthOrFake AI
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# Fact Check: JP Morgan warns oil could hit $130 amid Middle East conflict ## What We Know JP Morgan has indicated that oil prices could potentially ...

Fact Check: JP Morgan warns oil could hit $130 amid Middle East conflict

What We Know

JP Morgan has indicated that oil prices could potentially surge to between $120 and $130 per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and Israel. This warning comes amidst a backdrop of heightened military conflict and the possibility of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil flows source-1, source-4.

Despite this alarming forecast, JP Morgan maintains a more conservative base-case price prediction for 2025, estimating that oil prices will stabilize in the low to mid $60s per barrel under normal conditions source-3. However, they acknowledge that severe scenarios, such as military conflict or significant disruptions in oil supply, could lead to the aforementioned price spike source-6.

Analysis

The claim that JP Morgan warns oil could hit $130 is substantiated by multiple sources. The bank's report outlines a worst-case scenario where military actions disrupt oil exports from Iran, which could significantly impact global oil supply and prices source-8.

While the warning is credible, it is essential to consider the context and potential biases of the sources. Reuters, a reputable news organization, reported on the rising oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict, corroborating JP Morgan's forecast source-1. Additionally, Oilprice.com, which specializes in energy market analysis, provides insights into JP Morgan's predictions while also highlighting their cautious long-term outlook source-3.

The analysis from these sources indicates a consensus on the potential for significant price increases in the event of further escalations in the Middle East. However, it is also clear that JP Morgan's base-case forecast remains conservative, suggesting that while the risk exists, it is not the bank's primary expectation.

Conclusion

The claim that JP Morgan warns oil could hit $130 amid the Middle East conflict is True. The bank has explicitly stated that under severe geopolitical scenarios, such as military conflict or disruption of oil supplies, prices could reach this level. However, they also maintain a more moderate forecast for the future, indicating that while the risk is significant, it is not their baseline expectation.

Sources

  1. Oil prices up nearly 3% as Israel-Iran conflict escalates, US ...
  2. JP Morgan maintains 2025 forecast for oil prices in low-to- ...
  3. JP Morgan: Oil Could Hit $130—But We're Still Calling $60
  4. Major analysts predict oil prices if Strait of Hormuz blocked
  5. Oil Prices Could Soar to $130 Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions ...
  6. Middle East Tensions Could Spike Oil Prices to $130, Warns JPMorgan

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Fact Check: How nuts is Mark Carney? Perhaps nuttier than you think. Have a read of this piece in the Financial Post, by Matthew Lau. "Having left his gig as UN Special Envoy for Climate and Finance to lead the federal Liberal government, Mark Carney is now in a position to focus his and Greta Thunberg’s global climate crusade squarely on Canada. The crusade, Carney boasted back in 2021 while in his previous role, is worth many trillions of dollars. As he told CBC News at that year’s UN climate conference, “We have banks, asset managers, pension funds, insurance companies from around the world — more than 45 countries — and their total resources, totalling US$130 trillion” dedicated to transitioning the world’s economy away from fossil fuels. That dollar figure is higher than global GDP. Last month, Carney laid out Canada’s required contribution to his climate ambitions: “Canada must invest $2 trillion by 2050 — about $80 billion per year — to become carbon competitive and achieve Net Zero. However, investments in decarbonisation currently run between $10–20 billion annually.” The implication is that another $60-70 billion a year will need to be wrung out of Canadian businesses and consumers, either through direct taxation and government spending or with regulatory browbeating to push Canadians’ savings and investments into global warming initiatives. Carney has made no effort to hide his agenda to browbeat businesses into joining his and Greta Thunberg’s climate crusade. In a 2021 interview he declared, “We need a sustainable economy, and is your business aligned with that? Are your hiring practices consistent with that? Are you developing people in a way that’s consistent with that? Ultimately, what’s being asked of businesses when it comes to climate is, do you have a plan for net-zero? Canada has a legislated objective for net zero alongside another 130 countries.” “A Swedish teenager,” Carney continued, referring to Thunberg, “can figure out the carbon budget and that we have less than 10 years and you have to get to net-zero to stabilize it and if you’re a company and you have purpose, well, what’s your plan? And all these plans need to come together.” This is utter insanity: under Justin Trudeau Canada suffered rapidly declining business investment and now his successor wants the country’s business leaders to take financial planning directives from Greta Thunberg. While the federal government barrels down the road to net-zero impoverishment for Canada, everyone else is looking for the exit ramp. In January, six of the largest U.S. banks — JPMorganChase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley — quit the Carney-led net-zero banking alliance. Canada’s Big Six Banks — RBC, TD Bank, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank — have quit the initiative as well. Even Europe is beginning to back off on government piling climate obligations onto businesses in the name of fighting global warming. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the EU is watering down its climate accounting policies “amid pushback from member states and companies within the bloc over the new rules, which they say would have increased costs and reduced the competitiveness of their business.” Specifically, regulations previously scheduled for this year would have forced companies “to report in detail on their environmental, social and corporate-governance performance while making significant cuts to the emissions from within their supply chain.” The EU is now dropping, weakening or postponing many of these climate regulations, so that businesses will be able to better “grow, innovate, and create quality jobs.” This is effectively an admission that piling climate obligations and environmental reporting mandates onto businesses prevents them from growing, innovating and creating good jobs. Unfortunately, Mark Carney is all about climate obligations and reporting mandates. The road Canada is currently marching down for climate-related financial disclosures is based on a framework proposed by a task force Carney initiated in 2015. His aforementioned Thunberg-praising interview was not with an environmental journalist, but with Pivot Magazine, which is published by CPA Canada, the accounting industry’s national association. “We cannot get to net-zero without proper climate reporting,” he insisted, speaking of the need for “one core global standard” for climate accounting and reporting. A global climate reporting standard to help push trillions of dollars — yes, trillions with a “T” — from Canadian workers and taxpayers into Mark Carney and Greta Thunberg’s climate crusade? After a decade of Justin Trudeau’s ruinous policies weakening Canada from coast to coast, there could be little worse for the country and its economy than a Liberal government led by Mark Carney." The Financial Post

Detailed fact-check analysis of: How nuts is Mark Carney? Perhaps nuttier than you think. Have a read of this piece in the Financial Post, by Matthew Lau. "Having left his gig as UN Special Envoy for Climate and Finance to lead the federal Liberal government, Mark Carney is now in a position to focus his and Greta Thunberg’s global climate crusade squarely on Canada. The crusade, Carney boasted back in 2021 while in his previous role, is worth many trillions of dollars. As he told CBC News at that year’s UN climate conference, “We have banks, asset managers, pension funds, insurance companies from around the world — more than 45 countries — and their total resources, totalling US$130 trillion” dedicated to transitioning the world’s economy away from fossil fuels. That dollar figure is higher than global GDP. Last month, Carney laid out Canada’s required contribution to his climate ambitions: “Canada must invest $2 trillion by 2050 — about $80 billion per year — to become carbon competitive and achieve Net Zero. However, investments in decarbonisation currently run between $10–20 billion annually.” The implication is that another $60-70 billion a year will need to be wrung out of Canadian businesses and consumers, either through direct taxation and government spending or with regulatory browbeating to push Canadians’ savings and investments into global warming initiatives. Carney has made no effort to hide his agenda to browbeat businesses into joining his and Greta Thunberg’s climate crusade. In a 2021 interview he declared, “We need a sustainable economy, and is your business aligned with that? Are your hiring practices consistent with that? Are you developing people in a way that’s consistent with that? Ultimately, what’s being asked of businesses when it comes to climate is, do you have a plan for net-zero? Canada has a legislated objective for net zero alongside another 130 countries.” “A Swedish teenager,” Carney continued, referring to Thunberg, “can figure out the carbon budget and that we have less than 10 years and you have to get to net-zero to stabilize it and if you’re a company and you have purpose, well, what’s your plan? And all these plans need to come together.” This is utter insanity: under Justin Trudeau Canada suffered rapidly declining business investment and now his successor wants the country’s business leaders to take financial planning directives from Greta Thunberg. While the federal government barrels down the road to net-zero impoverishment for Canada, everyone else is looking for the exit ramp. In January, six of the largest U.S. banks — JPMorganChase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley — quit the Carney-led net-zero banking alliance. Canada’s Big Six Banks — RBC, TD Bank, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank — have quit the initiative as well. Even Europe is beginning to back off on government piling climate obligations onto businesses in the name of fighting global warming. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the EU is watering down its climate accounting policies “amid pushback from member states and companies within the bloc over the new rules, which they say would have increased costs and reduced the competitiveness of their business.” Specifically, regulations previously scheduled for this year would have forced companies “to report in detail on their environmental, social and corporate-governance performance while making significant cuts to the emissions from within their supply chain.” The EU is now dropping, weakening or postponing many of these climate regulations, so that businesses will be able to better “grow, innovate, and create quality jobs.” This is effectively an admission that piling climate obligations and environmental reporting mandates onto businesses prevents them from growing, innovating and creating good jobs. Unfortunately, Mark Carney is all about climate obligations and reporting mandates. The road Canada is currently marching down for climate-related financial disclosures is based on a framework proposed by a task force Carney initiated in 2015. His aforementioned Thunberg-praising interview was not with an environmental journalist, but with Pivot Magazine, which is published by CPA Canada, the accounting industry’s national association. “We cannot get to net-zero without proper climate reporting,” he insisted, speaking of the need for “one core global standard” for climate accounting and reporting. A global climate reporting standard to help push trillions of dollars — yes, trillions with a “T” — from Canadian workers and taxpayers into Mark Carney and Greta Thunberg’s climate crusade? After a decade of Justin Trudeau’s ruinous policies weakening Canada from coast to coast, there could be little worse for the country and its economy than a Liberal government led by Mark Carney." The Financial Post

Mar 23, 2025
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