Fact Check: Is inflation going to rise

Fact Check: "Is inflation going to rise?"

What We Know

Inflation rates are a critical economic indicator, reflecting the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power. As of May 2025, the annual inflation rate in the United States was reported at 2.4%, a slight increase from 2.3% in the previous month (Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2025). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates that inflation has remained moderate, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2.8% (Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Tariffs Not Yet Affecting Inflation).

Forecasts for inflation in the latter half of 2025 suggest a potential increase, with estimates ranging from 2.6% to 2.9% due to various economic factors, including tariffs and supply chain issues (U.S. Inflation Rates Over Time and the Forecast for 2025). The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will monitor inflation trends closely, especially in light of ongoing tariff impacts (Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Tariffs Not Yet Affecting Inflation).

Analysis

The claim that inflation is going to rise is supported by several economic forecasts and current data trends. The CPI data shows a consistent increase in prices, and the Federal Reserve's monitoring of inflation suggests that they expect fluctuations due to external factors like tariffs (Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Tariffs Not Yet Affecting Inflation, Deloitte Economic Forecast).

However, the reliability of these forecasts can vary. For instance, the Deloitte Economic Forecast anticipates a rise in inflation due to tariffs, but this is contingent on numerous economic variables that could change (Deloitte Economic Forecast). Similarly, while the Dallas Fed predicts mildly elevated inflation rates, it emphasizes the uncertainty inherent in these projections (Is inflation still slowing? Early 2025 data pivotal to outlook).

Moreover, while the current inflation rate is relatively stable, the potential for increases exists, particularly with external pressures such as tariffs on imports, which could gradually affect consumer prices (Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Tariffs Not Yet Affecting Inflation).

Conclusion

The claim that inflation is going to rise is Partially True. Current data indicates a moderate inflation rate, but forecasts suggest potential increases due to various economic factors, particularly tariffs. The situation remains fluid, and while there are indicators of rising inflation, the extent and timing of such increases are uncertain.