Fact Check: Is Illinois a blue state?

Is Illinois a Blue State?

The claim that "Illinois is a blue state" refers to the state's political alignment, particularly in the context of recent elections. This assertion is often based on voting patterns in presidential elections, where the Democratic Party has consistently received a majority of votes. However, the nuances of Illinois' political landscape warrant a closer examination to understand the full context of this claim.

What We Know

1. Voting History: Illinois has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden received 57.54% of the vote, while Donald Trump garnered 40.55%, reflecting a consistent trend where the Democratic candidate has won by a significant margin in the past few elections. Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 with 55% of the vote compared to Trump's 39% 28.

2. Long-term Trends: Historically, Illinois has fluctuated between Democratic and Republican leadership. From the Civil War until the 1920s, the state was largely Republican. However, it shifted to a Democratic stronghold during the Great Depression and World War II, returning to Republican support intermittently until the late 20th century. Since 1988, Illinois has voted Democratic in presidential elections, with the last Republican victory occurring during George H.W. Bush's campaign 45.

3. Electoral Votes: Illinois has lost one electoral vote following the 2020 census, attributed to population declines as residents move to neighboring states. Despite this, the state remains a significant player in presidential elections due to its electoral vote count 5.

4. County-Level Voting: A closer look at county-level voting reveals that while urban areas, particularly Chicago, overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates, there are significant Republican strongholds in rural areas. This division highlights the complexity of Illinois' political landscape, as urban and rural voting patterns differ markedly 67.

Analysis

The assertion that Illinois is a blue state is supported by recent electoral outcomes, but several factors complicate this characterization:

• Source Reliability: The sources used to support the claim, such as Wikipedia 2 and various news outlets 38, are generally reliable but can be subject to bias. Wikipedia, while a good starting point, relies on secondary sources and may not always provide the most current or comprehensive data. News organizations like CNN and NBC are reputable but may present information with a specific political angle, particularly in the context of election coverage.

• Historical Context: The historical voting patterns of Illinois indicate a more complex political identity than a simple blue state label. The state has oscillated between parties over the decades, and while it currently leans Democratic, this has not always been the case. The historical context provided by sources like 270toWin 4 and American Presidents 5 is crucial for understanding the evolution of Illinois' political landscape.

• Geographic Disparities: The urban-rural divide in voting behavior is significant. While urban areas predominantly vote Democratic, rural counties often support Republican candidates. This geographic disparity suggests that while Illinois may be classified as a blue state in presidential elections, local and state elections can yield different results, reflecting a more nuanced political environment.

• Potential Conflicts of Interest: Some sources may have inherent biases based on their political affiliations or the demographics of their readership. For instance, local news outlets may cater to the political leanings of their audience, which could influence the framing of election results and analyses.

Conclusion

Verdict: True

The claim that Illinois is a blue state is supported by substantial evidence, particularly in the context of recent presidential elections where Democratic candidates have consistently secured a majority of the votes. Key evidence includes Joe Biden's 57.54% victory in the 2020 election and a historical trend of Democratic wins since 1988. However, it is important to recognize the complexity of Illinois' political landscape, characterized by significant urban-rural divides and historical fluctuations in party support.

While the current political alignment leans Democratic, the state's history and geographic voting patterns indicate that this classification may not capture the full picture of Illinois' political identity. Additionally, the reliability of sources varies, and potential biases should be considered when interpreting electoral data.

Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information and consider the nuances of political classifications, as they can evolve over time and may not reflect the entirety of a state's political landscape.

Sources

1. Election Vote Totals Results. Illinois State Board of Elections. Link
2. 2020 United States presidential election in Illinois - Wikipedia. Link
3. Illinois Election Results 2020 | Live Map Updates | Voting by County. Politico. Link
4. Illinois Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin. Link
5. Presidential Voting History of Illinois (Since 1960) - American Presidents. Link
6. [MAP] See how each Illinois county voted in the 2020 presidential election. Chicago Sun-Times. Link
7. Illinois Election Results and Maps 2020 - CNN. Link
8. Illinois election results 2020: Live results by county - NBC News. Link
9. 2020 Presidential General Election Results - Illinois. Uselectionatlas.org. Link
10. Illinois Election Data. Link