Fact Check: "Iran's regime is backed by millions of loyal followers, making it stronger."
What We Know
The claim that Iran's regime is backed by millions of loyal followers is misleading. Historical context shows that while the Islamic Republic of Iran initially enjoyed broad support from various social classes after its establishment in 1979, this support has significantly eroded over the decades. As noted in a recent analysis, the regime has lost its backing from nearly every class it once represented, leading to a reliance on a much narrower "hard base" of support, which is estimated to be around 8 million people, or approximately 10% of the population (Foreign Policy). This hard base consists of individuals who support the regime for ideological reasons, particularly those aligned with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The decline in support is attributed to several factors, including the regime's hard-line policies, economic mismanagement, and violent crackdowns on dissent, which have alienated various segments of the population, including the working class and middle classes (Foreign Policy). The protests in 2017 and 2019, which saw participation from areas traditionally considered regime strongholds, further illustrate this shift in public sentiment (Foreign Policy).
Analysis
The assertion that Iran's regime is bolstered by millions of loyal followers fails to consider the current socio-political landscape in Iran. The regime's support base has shrunk significantly, and the remaining hard base is characterized by ideological commitment rather than widespread loyalty. The claim overlooks the growing discontent among the populace, particularly among the youth and working-class citizens, who have increasingly turned against the regime due to economic hardships and repression (Foreign Policy).
Moreover, while the IRGC and its affiliates maintain a degree of control through violence and propaganda, the notion that they represent a majority of the population is unfounded. Reports indicate that the regime's reliance on a narrow ideological base is a sign of its weakening position, as even its most ardent supporters are beginning to question their loyalty (Foreign Policy).
In contrast, sources that suggest the regime's strength often highlight its economic control and military capabilities, but these factors do not equate to popular support. For instance, while the IRGC controls a significant portion of Iran's economy, this does not reflect a loyal populace but rather an entrenched power structure that relies on coercion and patronage (Bloomberg).
Conclusion
The claim that Iran's regime is backed by millions of loyal followers is False. The evidence indicates that the regime's support has dwindled significantly over the years, with only a small, ideologically driven segment of the population remaining loyal. The broader Iranian society has increasingly distanced itself from the regime, particularly in light of economic challenges and state repression. Thus, the assertion does not accurately reflect the current dynamics within Iran.
