Fact Check: Iran's ballistic missile arsenal has demonstrated high levels of precision and the ability to penetrate densely defended airspace, posing a significant deterrent to escalation.

Fact Check: "Iran's ballistic missile arsenal has demonstrated high levels of precision and the ability to penetrate densely defended airspace, posing a significant deterrent to escalation."

What We Know

Iran's ballistic missile capabilities have been a focal point of international concern, particularly regarding their precision and effectiveness in penetrating advanced air defense systems. Recent military operations, particularly the June 2025 strikes against Israel, have highlighted both the strengths and limitations of Iran's missile arsenal. During this operation, Iran launched over 150 ballistic missiles, including the Ghadr-110, Khorramshahr, and Sejjil-2, targeting various sites in Israel, including military and civilian infrastructure (source-4).

The Ghadr-110, for example, is reported to have a circular error probable (CEP) of approximately 100–200 meters, making it suitable for striking fixed targets with a degree of accuracy (source-4). However, the overall effectiveness of these missile strikes has been questioned, as many missiles were intercepted by Israel's multi-layered air defense systems, which include support from U.S. technologies (source-4).

Analysis

The claim that Iran's ballistic missile arsenal demonstrates high levels of precision and the ability to penetrate densely defended airspace is partially true. While there is evidence that some of Iran's missiles, such as the Ghadr-110, possess significant precision capabilities, the operational reality during the June 2025 strikes indicates that many of these missiles were intercepted before reaching their targets. The interception of a large number of missiles by a coalition of air defense systems, including those from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, suggests that while Iran's missiles can be precise, their effectiveness in a real-world scenario is compromised by robust defensive measures (source-4).

Moreover, the strategic context is critical. Iran's missile capabilities are designed to serve as a deterrent, but the effectiveness of this deterrence is contingent upon their ability to successfully penetrate enemy defenses. The operational failures during the June strikes, where many missiles did not achieve their intended impact, indicate that while Iran's arsenal is formidable, it is not infallible (source-4).

The reliability of the sources used in this analysis varies. The primary source, a detailed report on Iranian deterrence, provides a comprehensive overview of the operational capabilities and limitations of Iran's missile systems. However, it is essential to consider the potential biases in sources discussing military capabilities, as they may emphasize certain aspects to support specific narratives (source-4).

Conclusion

The claim that Iran's ballistic missile arsenal has demonstrated high levels of precision and the ability to penetrate densely defended airspace is partially true. While there is evidence supporting the precision of certain missile systems, the effectiveness of these missiles in penetrating advanced air defenses has been called into question by recent operational failures. Thus, while Iran's missile capabilities serve as a deterrent, their actual performance in combat scenarios suggests limitations that temper the overall assessment of their effectiveness.

Fact Check: Iran's ballistic missile arsenal has demonstrated high levels of precision and the ability to penetrate densely defended airspace, posing a significant deterrent to escalation.