Fact Check: "Iran would not be this close to possessing a nuclear weapon if Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu had not forced America out of the nuclear agreement with Iran."
What We Know
The claim centers around the assertion that Iran's proximity to developing nuclear weapons is a direct consequence of the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a nuclear agreement established in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 countries (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States). The U.S. officially withdrew from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018, under President Donald Trump, who criticized the deal as ineffective and harmful to U.S. interests (source-1).
Prior to the U.S. withdrawal, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran was adhering to the terms of the JCPOA, which limited its nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief (source-2). Following the withdrawal, Iran gradually began to breach the agreement's restrictions, leading to an increase in its uranium enrichment levels (source-5).
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been a vocal critic of the JCPOA, claiming that Iran has the capacity to develop nuclear weapons and alleging that Iran has made significant progress in its nuclear program since the U.S. withdrawal (source-5). However, U.S. intelligence assessments have indicated that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon at this time, although there is concern about the potential for future developments (source-4).
Analysis
The claim that Iran would not be close to possessing a nuclear weapon without the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA is supported by the timeline of events following the withdrawal. After the U.S. exited the agreement, Iran began to exceed the uranium enrichment limits set by the JCPOA, which has raised alarms about its potential to develop nuclear weapons capabilities (source-2).
However, it is important to note that while the U.S. withdrawal has certainly impacted Iran's nuclear program and its international relations, the assertion that Iran is "close" to developing a nuclear weapon is contested. U.S. intelligence has not confirmed that Iran is currently pursuing a nuclear weapon, indicating that while the situation has become more precarious, it does not equate to an imminent threat (source-4).
Netanyahu's claims about Iran's nuclear capabilities have often been met with skepticism, as they rely heavily on intelligence assessments that may not be independently verified (source-5). The reliability of these sources is mixed; while Israel has a strong intelligence community, its motivations may include political objectives that could bias its assessments.
Conclusion
The claim that "Iran would not be this close to possessing a nuclear weapon if Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu had not forced America out of the nuclear agreement with Iran" is Partially True. The U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA has undeniably contributed to an escalation in Iran's nuclear activities and tensions in the region. However, the assertion that Iran is imminently close to developing a nuclear weapon is not fully supported by current intelligence assessments, which indicate that while Iran has increased its enrichment levels, it is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon at this time.
