Fact Check: Iran Threatens to Close the Strait of Hormuz Without International Intervention
What We Know
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Recently, amidst escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, Iranian officials have reiterated threats to close this strategic waterway. Notably, Esmail Kosari, a member of Iranβs parliament and a high-ranking official in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has stated that the closure of the Strait is "under serious consideration" due to the ongoing conflict with Israel (source-1).
Iran has a history of making such threats, particularly during periods of heightened military tension. The Iranian military has developed capabilities, including cruise and ballistic missiles, naval mines, and drones, which could potentially be used to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait (source-1). Furthermore, the geopolitical implications of closing the Strait are significant, as it would likely lead to immediate increases in global oil prices and economic disruptions worldwide (source-1).
Analysis
The claim that Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz is substantiated by multiple sources. The Iranian government has made explicit statements regarding the potential closure of the Strait in response to Israeli military actions against its interests (source-2). These threats are not new; they have been part of Iran's strategic rhetoric for years, especially during conflicts with Israel or other adversaries.
However, while the threats are serious, analysts are divided on the likelihood of Iran actually executing such a blockade. Some experts suggest that while Iran has the capability to disrupt shipping, the actual closure of the Strait would be a drastic step that could invite severe international retaliation, potentially leading to military conflict (source-3). Historical context shows that even during the Iran-Iraq War, oil continued to flow despite threats and attacks on shipping (source-3).
The reliability of the sources discussing Iran's threats varies. The statements from Iranian officials are direct and authoritative, but they may also serve as political theater aimed at rallying domestic support or deterring foreign intervention. On the other hand, analyses from international security experts provide a more cautious perspective, emphasizing the complexities and potential consequences of such actions (source-2).
Conclusion
The claim that Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz without international intervention is True. Iranian officials have explicitly stated that the closure of this vital shipping route is a consideration in light of ongoing military tensions with Israel. While the actual implementation of such a threat remains uncertain and fraught with geopolitical risks, the rhetoric from Iranian leadership indicates a serious willingness to escalate tensions if provoked.
Sources
- Could Iran Carry Out Its Threat To Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz?
- Iran Threatens To Leave Nuclear Treaty and Close Strait of Hormuz
- Strait of Hormuz: Iran threatens 33-km wide key oil lifeline for the ...
- What would happen if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz? All ...
- Iran Could Cause Chaos Trying to Close the Strait of Hormuz
- Strait of Hormuz | International Crisis Group
- Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz: Why the world is panicking
- Could Iran Carry Out Its Threat To Shut Down The Strait Of ...