Fact Check: "Iran has shocked the world by demonstrating true deterrence power through its advanced ballistic missile program capable of striking major cities and critical military infrastructure."
What We Know
Iran's ballistic missile program is recognized as the largest in the Middle East and plays a significant role in its military strategy. The program includes a diverse range of short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs and MRBMs), which serve as a deterrent against perceived threats, particularly from regional adversaries like Israel and Saudi Arabia (Wikipedia). The missiles are designed to target major cities and military infrastructure, with capabilities that have evolved significantly since their inception during the Iran-Iraq War (Congress.gov).
As of 2025, Iran's missile arsenal is estimated to include over 3,000 missiles, with some capable of reaching ranges of up to 2,000 kilometers, which could potentially strike targets across the Middle East and beyond (Congress.gov). The Iranian military has adopted a "deterrence by punishment" strategy, aiming to offset the military superiority of its adversaries (Wikipedia).
Recent reports indicate that Iran has been enhancing its missile capabilities, including the development of solid-fueled missiles, which are generally considered more reliable and quicker to launch than liquid-fueled variants (Congress.gov).
Analysis
The claim that Iran has demonstrated "true deterrence power" through its ballistic missile program is partially supported by evidence. The program's extensive inventory and the strategic doctrine surrounding it suggest that Iran has indeed established a credible deterrent capability. For instance, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has assessed that Iran could develop a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2035 if it chooses to pursue that path (Congress.gov).
However, the effectiveness of this deterrence is complicated by several factors. A recent analysis highlighted that while Iran possesses significant missile capabilities, its military strategy has been exposed to vulnerabilities, particularly following Israeli strikes that targeted its missile infrastructure (IISS). Additionally, the actual impact of Iran's missile strikes in conflicts, such as the recent Iran-Israel war, has shown that a substantial percentage of missiles did not hit intended targets, raising questions about the reliability of its deterrent capabilities (Wikipedia).
Moreover, while the program is extensive, it is also heavily reliant on foreign technology and materials, which could impact its long-term sustainability (Congress.gov). The credibility of the sources discussing Iran's missile capabilities varies; while government reports and established military analyses provide a reliable foundation, some sources may exhibit bias or lack comprehensive context.
Conclusion
The claim that Iran has demonstrated true deterrence power through its advanced ballistic missile program is Partially True. While Iran has developed a substantial missile arsenal capable of striking major cities and military infrastructure, the effectiveness and reliability of this deterrent are influenced by ongoing vulnerabilities and the geopolitical landscape. The program does serve as a significant element of Iran's military strategy, but its actual operational success and sustainability remain in question.
Sources
- Iran's Ballistic Missile Programs: Background and Context - Congress.gov
- Iran's Ballistic Missile Programs: Background and Context - Congress.gov
- Iran's ballistic-missile program - Wikipedia
- Israel's attack and the limits of Iran's missile strategy - IISS
- Report to Congress on Iran's Ballistic Missile Programs - USNI
