Fact Check: Iran could provoke a global energy crisis by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Fact Check: "Iran could provoke a global energy crisis by closing the Strait of Hormuz."

What We Know

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial maritime chokepoint located between Oman and Iran, through which a significant portion of the world's oil supply transits. In 2024, approximately 20 million barrels per day flowed through the strait, accounting for about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. This strait is not only vital for oil but also for liquefied natural gas (LNG), with around one-fifth of global LNG trade passing through it in the same year. The closure of this strait would create substantial supply delays and increase shipping costs, potentially leading to a spike in global energy prices.

Recent geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Following military actions and threats from Iran, the likelihood of such a closure has reportedly increased, with estimates suggesting a rise from 24% to 47% in just a few days due to escalating tensions (TeleSur). Additionally, any closure would severely impact global trade routes and energy supplies, as noted by various analysts (Arab News).

Analysis

The claim that Iran could provoke a global energy crisis by closing the Strait of Hormuz is supported by credible evidence. The strait is a critical artery for global oil and gas supplies, and its closure would have immediate and far-reaching consequences. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, flows through the Strait of Hormuz constituted over one-quarter of total global seaborne oil trade in 2024 (EIA).

Moreover, the geopolitical context surrounding Iran's threats to close the strait is significant. Reports indicate that Iran has a history of making such threats, particularly in response to military actions against it (Reuters). The potential for a closure is not merely speculative; it is grounded in the realities of international energy markets and the strategic importance of the strait. Analysts have emphasized that a blockade could "cripple global trade routes" and "choke energy supplies," leading to economic repercussions across continents (Arab News).

While there are alternative routes and pipelines that could mitigate some disruptions, such as the East-West pipeline from Saudi Arabia and the UAE's Fujairah pipeline, these alternatives do not operate at full capacity and would not fully compensate for the loss of the Strait of Hormuz (EIA). Thus, the potential for a global energy crisis remains a valid concern.

Conclusion

Verdict: True
The claim that Iran could provoke a global energy crisis by closing the Strait of Hormuz is substantiated by the critical role the strait plays in global oil and gas supply chains. Given the current geopolitical tensions and the significant volume of energy that transits through this chokepoint, any disruption could indeed lead to a substantial crisis in global energy markets.

Fact Check: Iran could provoke a global energy crisis by closing the Strait of Hormuz.