Fact Check: Insurers lack historical data to predict tariff impacts on health costs.

Fact Check: "Insurers lack historical data to predict tariff impacts on health costs."

What We Know

The claim that "insurers lack historical data to predict tariff impacts on health costs" suggests that health insurance companies do not have sufficient historical data to accurately forecast how tariffs will affect healthcare expenses. However, various sources indicate that insurers do have access to extensive data, albeit with certain limitations regarding the specific impact of tariffs.

1. According to a report by Mercer, the healthcare industry anticipates that tariff-related import expenses could drive up hospital and health system costs by approximately 15% within six months, based on a survey of healthcare experts (Patel & Watson, 2025) [source-1]. This indicates that there is a recognized expectation of cost increases due to tariffs, suggesting that insurers are at least somewhat prepared to estimate these impacts.

2. A report from Fitch Ratings highlights that health insurers face moderate exposure to tariffs, indicating that they are aware of the potential financial implications and have some data to work with (Fitch Ratings, 2025) [source-5]. This suggests that while historical data specifically linking tariffs to health costs may be limited, insurers are not entirely without relevant data.

3. Additionally, a report from the Kaiser Family Foundation notes that the extent to which tariffs will increase healthcare costs and insurance premiums remains uncertain, but it acknowledges that insurers are monitoring these developments closely (KFF, 2025) [source-6]. This implies that insurers are actively engaged in data collection and analysis related to tariffs.

Analysis

While the claim suggests a lack of historical data, the evidence indicates that insurers do have access to substantial data regarding healthcare costs and the economic impacts of tariffs. The survey conducted by Mercer shows a proactive approach from industry experts in anticipating cost increases due to tariffs, which implies that they are using available data to make informed predictions (Patel & Watson, 2025) [source-1].

However, it is important to note that the specific historical data linking tariffs directly to healthcare costs may be sparse. The dynamic nature of tariffs and their economic implications means that insurers may face challenges in making precise predictions. The Fitch Ratings report acknowledges the moderate exposure of health insurers to tariffs, suggesting that while they can estimate impacts, the unpredictability of tariffs complicates forecasting (Fitch Ratings, 2025) [source-5].

Furthermore, the health insurance industry is increasingly relying on various data sources, including lifestyle and socioeconomic data, to inform their pricing models (ProPublica, 2018) [source-2]. This indicates that while they may lack historical data specifically related to tariffs, they do possess a wealth of information that could help them understand broader trends affecting healthcare costs.

Conclusion

The claim that "insurers lack historical data to predict tariff impacts on health costs" is Partially True. While it is accurate that specific historical data linking tariffs directly to healthcare costs may be limited, insurers do have access to substantial data and are actively using it to anticipate the economic impacts of tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs complicates their ability to make precise predictions, but it does not mean that they are entirely without data or insights into potential cost increases.

Sources

1. The impact of tariffs on healthcare costs. Retrieved from Mercer
2. Health Insurers Are Vacuuming Up Details About You. Retrieved from ProPublica
3. For US Insurers, Tariffs Create Risks and Opportunities. Retrieved from BCG
4. Rising Tariffs, Rising Claims: How P&C Insurers Can Stay Ahead. Retrieved from Everest Group
5. Fitch Ratings: How higher tariffs could impact health insurers. Retrieved from Fierce Healthcare
6. Tariffs Are Driving 2026 Health Insurance Premiums Up. Retrieved from KFF
7. Healthcare analysis: Drug tariffs, Medicaid, insurer earnings. Retrieved from Modern Healthcare
8. Tariffs Ahead: Healthcare Payers Chart A Cautious Course. Retrieved from Everest Group