Fact Check: "Incumbent politicians often have advantages in elections."
What We Know
The claim that incumbent politicians often have advantages in elections is supported by a substantial body of research. According to a study published in the article "Closest to the People? Incumbency Advantage and the Personal Vote in Non-Partisan Elections" by Jack Lucas et al., re-election rates among incumbents in non-partisan elections can exceed ninety percent. This high success rate suggests that incumbents enjoy significant advantages over challengers, which can be attributed to several factors, including the personal vote they cultivate with constituents, informational cues associated with incumbency, and the quality of the candidates themselves (Lucas et al., 2021).
Another source, "Incumbents have the upper hand in elections," discusses how incumbents benefit from coordination failures among challengers, further solidifying their electoral advantages. This source highlights that incumbents not only have established networks and name recognition but also face less competition due to the perceived risks challengers encounter when running against an incumbent (CEPR, 2023).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim of incumbency advantages is robust. The study by Lucas et al. provides empirical data indicating that the personal vote—defined as the relationship and reputation that incumbents build with their constituents—plays a significant role in their electoral success. They found that this personal vote could decisively influence about one in four incumbent races, although it is not the sole factor in their success (Lucas et al., 2021).
Moreover, the article from CEPR emphasizes the strategic disadvantages faced by challengers, who often struggle to coordinate their efforts effectively against incumbents. This coordination failure can lead to a lack of viable challengers, allowing incumbents to maintain their positions with less electoral competition (CEPR, 2023).
While the sources cited are credible and well-regarded in the field of political science, it is important to note that the dynamics of incumbency can vary significantly across different electoral contexts. For instance, the advantages may be more pronounced in local non-partisan elections compared to highly competitive partisan races, where incumbency advantages have reportedly declined in recent years (see "The Decline of the Incumbency Advantage in US House Elections"). This suggests that while the claim holds true in many contexts, it may not be universally applicable.
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that incumbent politicians often have advantages in elections is supported by substantial evidence from multiple credible sources. The combination of high re-election rates, the influence of personal votes, and the strategic challenges faced by challengers all contribute to the incumbency advantage. While variations exist based on the electoral context, the overarching trend indicates that incumbents generally enjoy significant advantages.
