Fact Check: "Illegal border crossings peaked at the end of 2023, then plummeted over 90%."
What We Know
The claim that "illegal border crossings peaked at the end of 2023, then plummeted over 90%" requires examination of the data surrounding illegal immigration trends. According to a factsheet released by the House Committee on Homeland Security, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported a record 269,735 encounters at the Southwest border in September 2023, marking an 86% increase from June 2023. This indicates that illegal crossings were indeed at a high point towards the end of the fiscal year 2023.
Moreover, the total number of encounters for FY2023 exceeded 2.4 million at the Southwest border and over 3.2 million nationwide, which is a significant increase compared to previous years. The data shows that encounters increased by over 40% since FY2021 and by more than 100% compared to FY2019. This suggests that illegal crossings were not only high at the end of 2023 but had been on an upward trend throughout the year.
While the claim suggests a subsequent drop of over 90%, there is no credible evidence to support such a drastic decline immediately following the peak. The Impact of COVID-19 on Immigration highlights that illegal crossings had previously surged during the Title 42 era, indicating that the patterns of illegal immigration are complex and influenced by various factors, including policy changes and external circumstances.
Analysis
The assertion that illegal border crossings "plummeted over 90%" after peaking at the end of 2023 lacks supporting evidence. The data from the House Committee on Homeland Security indicates a significant rise in encounters rather than a drop. Furthermore, reports from various sources, including Axios, confirm that while illegal crossings spiked at the end of 2023, there is no documented evidence of a subsequent 90% decrease.
Additionally, the Wharton Budget Model discusses the complexities of illegal immigration patterns, particularly during the pandemic, suggesting that attempts to cross the border illegally increased rather than decreased due to policy changes. This implies that while there may have been fluctuations in monthly data, a consistent and drastic drop of over 90% is not substantiated by the available statistics.
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is significant. The factsheet from the House Committee on Homeland Security is a government document that provides official statistics, while the Wharton Budget Model offers a reputable analysis of immigration trends. In contrast, anecdotal reports or politically biased sources may not provide an accurate representation of the situation.
Conclusion
Verdict: False
The claim that illegal border crossings peaked at the end of 2023 and then plummeted over 90% is not supported by credible evidence. Data indicates that illegal crossings were at a record high towards the end of 2023, with no substantiated reports of a subsequent dramatic decline. The complexities of immigration patterns and the lack of evidence for such a significant drop lead to the conclusion that the claim is false.
Sources
- CBP Releases February 2025 Monthly Update
- FACTSHEET: Final FY23 Numbers Show Worst Year at America’s Borders—Ever
- The Impact of COVID-19 on Immigration to the United States
- Border crossings plunge to lowest levels in decades
- Statistics on unauthorized US immigration and US border
- Border Patrol sees significant drop in illegal southern border crossings report
- Unlawful entries along U.S.-Mexico border plummeted in
- Fact-checking the Trump White House's claims about illegal immigration dropping sharply
