Fact Check: Hungarian Prime Minister Claims 95% Opposition to Ukraine's EU Membership from National Poll
What We Know
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán recently claimed that a national consultation revealed 95% of participants opposed Ukraine's aspirations for EU membership. This consultation reportedly involved around two million Hungarians, which constitutes approximately one-fifth of Hungary's population of nearly 10 million (Kyiv Post) [source-2]. Orbán characterized the result as a "people's mandate," asserting that it reflected the voice of the Hungarian people against what he termed "Brussels’ delusions" and the potential for war and economic ruin (Kyiv Post) [source-2].
However, the legitimacy of this consultation has been called into question. Critics, including opposition leaders and independent media, have labeled the initiative as a government propaganda campaign. They argue that the consultations are non-binding and have been criticized for their methodology, which allegedly favors party supporters and allows for multiple votes from the same individual (NV) [source-4]. The Ukrainian foreign ministry dismissed the poll as "anti-Ukrainian hysteria," suggesting that it was designed to manipulate public sentiment against Ukraine (Kyiv Independent) [source-8].
Analysis
The claim that 95% of participants opposed Ukraine's EU membership is based on the results of a government-initiated survey, which has a history of being criticized for its lack of transparency and potential bias. The Voks 2025 consultation, as it is known, has been described as a non-binding postal survey that has been conducted multiple times since Orbán's government took power (Kyiv Post) [source-2]. Critics argue that the process is flawed, as it allows for multiple votes from the same person and often includes leading questions that may skew results in favor of the government's agenda (NV) [source-4].
The credibility of the sources reporting on this claim varies. While the Kyiv Post and Kyiv Independent are reputable news outlets that provide coverage of Ukrainian and regional affairs, the criticisms of the polling process come from opposition figures and independent analysts, which may introduce a degree of bias against the Orbán government. Nevertheless, the Hungarian government's track record of using such consultations to bolster its political stance raises valid concerns about the reliability of the reported figures.
Conclusion
The claim that 95% of participants opposed Ukraine's EU membership is technically true based on the reported results of the national consultation. However, the methodology and context of the survey significantly undermine its credibility. The consultation has been criticized for being a tool of government propaganda rather than a genuine reflection of public opinion. Therefore, while the figure itself is accurate, the implications and reliability of the claim are questionable.
