Fact Check: how bad would it be by tariff war

Fact Check: how bad would it be by tariff war

Published April 8, 2025
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# The Economic Impact of a Tariff War: An In-Depth Analysis ## Introduction The claim regarding the severity of a tariff war raises significant quest...

The Economic Impact of a Tariff War: An In-Depth Analysis

Introduction

The claim regarding the severity of a tariff war raises significant questions about its potential economic consequences. Tariff wars, particularly between major economies like the United States and China, can have far-reaching effects on global trade, consumer prices, and economic stability. This article seeks to explore the multifaceted impacts of such a conflict, drawing on various sources to present a comprehensive overview of the situation without reaching a definitive conclusion.

What We Know

  1. Economic Effects of Tariffs: Tariffs can affect various economic stakeholders, including consumers, producers, and government revenue. A report from the Economic Forecast Project highlights that tariffs can lead to increased prices for consumers and decreased competitiveness for producers reliant on imported goods 1.

  2. Impact on Global Trade: The BBC reports that if tariffs were to rise significantly—up to 100%—the economic impact could be five times greater than current levels, significantly affecting U.S. imports and leading to retaliatory measures from China 2.

  3. China's Resilience: According to a New York Times article, China has attempted to downplay the negative effects of U.S. tariffs on its economy, asserting that it remains strong and resilient despite the trade tensions 3.

  4. Historical Context: PBS provides a graphical analysis of the potential economic effects of tariffs, illustrating how previous tariff implementations have led to retaliatory tariffs from countries like Canada and Mexico, thereby escalating trade wars 4.

  5. Small Business Impact: Forbes discusses the overlooked effects of tariff wars on small businesses, emphasizing that these entities may face significant challenges due to increased costs and reduced market access 5.

  6. Global Economic Ripple Effects: An article from the World Economic Forum notes that tariffs could disrupt international trade and have major implications for the global economy, highlighting the interconnected nature of modern trade relationships 6.

  7. Empirical Studies: Research from J.P. Morgan indicates that the costs of tariffs are primarily borne by U.S. consumers, leading to a decrease in overall economic activity 8. Similarly, the Tax Foundation reports that the tariffs imposed during the Trump administration reduced U.S. GDP by 0.4% 10.

Analysis

The sources cited provide a range of perspectives on the potential impacts of a tariff war.

  • Credibility and Bias: The Economic Forecast Project and J.P. Morgan are generally regarded as credible sources in economic analysis, but their interpretations may be influenced by their institutional biases. For example, J.P. Morgan, as a financial institution, may emphasize consumer impacts to advocate for policies that favor market stability. Conversely, the New York Times, while reputable, may have a narrative that aligns with broader political critiques of U.S. trade policies, which could color its reporting on China's economic resilience 3.

  • Methodological Considerations: Many of the studies referenced rely on historical data and economic modeling to predict outcomes. However, the accuracy of these models can vary based on the assumptions they make about consumer behavior, international responses, and the elasticity of demand for affected goods. For instance, the BBC's projection of a fivefold increase in impact assumes a linear relationship between tariff rates and economic consequences, which may not hold true in all scenarios 2.

  • Conflicts of Interest: Some sources, like Forbes, may have a vested interest in portraying the effects of tariffs on small businesses in a particular light, potentially leading to a bias in their analysis 5. It is essential to consider the motivations behind the information presented.

  • Contradicting Evidence: While some sources emphasize the negative impacts of tariffs, others, like the New York Times, suggest that the effects may not be as catastrophic as predicted, particularly for resilient economies like China 3. This discrepancy highlights the complexity of predicting economic outcomes in a tariff war.

Conclusion

Verdict: Unverified

The evidence surrounding the economic impact of a tariff war remains inconclusive. While several credible sources indicate that tariffs can lead to increased consumer prices and reduced competitiveness for producers, there is significant variability in the predictions and interpretations of these effects. For instance, while some reports suggest severe consequences for the U.S. economy, others argue that countries like China may be more resilient than anticipated.

The limitations of the available evidence include potential biases in the sources, varying methodologies, and the inherent unpredictability of economic models. As such, the claim regarding the severity of a tariff war cannot be definitively classified as "True" or "False." Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate the information presented and consider the broader context and potential biases that may influence the conclusions drawn by different sources.

Sources

  1. The Effect of Tariffs on the US Economy | Economic Forecast Project. Retrieved from https://efp.ucsb.edu/blog/community-policy-research/effect-tariffs-us-economy
  2. What would a US-China trade war do to the world economy? - BBC. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g2089vznzo
  3. China Tries to Downplay the Trade War's Effects on Its Economy - New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/asia/china-trade-war-tariffs.html
  4. Analysis: The potential economic effects of Trump's tariffs and ... - PBS. Retrieved from https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/analysis-the-potential-economic-effects-of-trumps-tariffs-and-trade-war-in-9-charts
  5. Tariff Wars And Small Businesses: An Overlooked Economic ... - Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/nataliemadeiracofield/2025/04/08/tariff-wars-and-small-businesses-an-overlooked-economic-ripple-effect/
  6. How impacted is your country by the Trump tariffs? - World Economic Forum. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/04/how-impacted-your-country-us-trump-tariffs/
  7. Tariffs and Their Global Impact: A Note from the Desk of our ... - Oxford Economics. Retrieved from https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/tariffs-and-their-global-impact-a-note-from-the-desk-of-our-chief-economist/#:~:text=If%20these%20tariffs%20remain%20in,performance%20through%202025%20and%20beyond.
  8. US Tariffs: What's the Impact? | J.P. Morgan Research. Retrieved from https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/us-tariffs
  9. What tariffs could mean for US workers, consumers and the economy - The Hill. Retrieved from https://thehill.com/business/5230405-trump-tariffs-economic-effects/
  10. Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War - Tax Foundation. Retrieved from https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/

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Fact Check: Autistic Non-Verbal Episodes in Marriage: Why Words Vanish Sometimes and What to Do About It Neurodiverse Couples Tuesday, august 12, 2025. Here’s the scene: You’re in the middle of a conversation with your spouse. Maybe the topic is small (“Did you pay the water bill?”) or monumental (“Are we happy?”). And then—without warning—your autistic partner’s voice disappears. No yelling, no slammed doors. Just… gone. You’re left holding the conversational steering wheel while they’ve quietly climbed into the trunk. If you’ve never lived with high-functioning autism, this can be tragically misconstrued as stonewalling or contempt. It isn’t. It’s just neurology pulling the emergency brake. Why This Happens: The Science Without the Lab Coat Smell For autistic adults, losing speech under stress is often a shutdown—a form of nervous system overload that knocks language production offline. Think of it like your phone freezing: all the apps are still there, but none of them open when you tap. Research calls this autistic burnout when it happens in a longer, chronic cycle—linked to masking (Hull et al., 2017; Raymaker et al., 2020). Masking is the art of “performing normal” so well that non-autistic people think you’re fine. The issue is that it eats through your energy reserves like a car idling in traffic with the A/C on full blast (Mantzalas et al., 2022). Eventually, one hard conversation can tip you from functional to frozen. And here’s where couples therapy meets neuroscience: physiological flooding—the body’s fight/flight/freeze switch—is a known relationship killer (Malik et al., 2019; Gottman Institute, 2024). In other words, for some autistic partners, flooding may tend to show up sooner, last longer, and is more likely to pull the plug on speech entirely. The Danger Loop in Marriage Autistic partner goes non-verbal — brain says “nope.” Non-autistic partner reads it as avoidance — brain says “attack.” Pressure increases — “Just say something.” Shutdown deepens — and now you’ve both lost. Do that a few hundred times and you’ll start conflating a physiological response into a moral failing. That’s the real marriage-killer. The Protocol: Three Phases, Zero Guesswork This is where we get practical. You can’t “love away” a temporary shutdown, but you can stop it from turning into World War III. Before: Build the Net Name the state. Agree on a phrase or signal ( I call this a couple code)—such as “words offline,” “shutdown,” a hand over the heart. The point is to make the invisible visible. The Shutdown Card. A literal card that says: I can’t speak right now. Please lower lights, reduce sound, give me X minutes. I promise I will circle back. The Pause Rule. Require a minimum of 20 minutes before resuming any tough talk. Autistic partner may need 90+. Agree ahead of time. Downgrade Kit. the usual gear; earplugs, soft light, weighted blanket, fidget, a quiet room. You know, human decency in object form. Reduce Daily Load. Avoid heavy talks right after work or big social events. Chronic overload makes a nervous shutdown more probable. During: Do Less, Better Autistic Partner: Give the signal. Exit stimulation. Switch channels if possible (text, notes app, yes/no cards). Send a short pre-written message: “Safe, can’t talk, back at 8:15.” Non-Autistic Partner: Acknowledge once—“Got it, I’m with you.” Hold the pause boundary. Lower stimuli. Go regulate your own nervous system—walk, journal, pet the dog. Don’t rehearse comebacks. Both: Avoid sarcasm, interrogation, ultimatums. Nothing lengthens a shutdown like moral outrage. After: Close the Loop Check in: “Are you ready to talk, or should we start in text?” Debrief: Identify triggers and what helped. Solve the actual problem. No conflict gets left to rot in the corner. Spot burnout early. If shutdowns start clustering, it’s time to reduce demands, not double them. How This Isn’t Stonewalling Stonewalling is a choice. Shutdown is a lockout. Stonewalling says, “I won’t talk to you.” Shutdown says, “I can’t talk to you yet, but I will.” The key difference? Repair intention. A shutdown protocol builds that right into the process. The Ten-Minute At-Home Drill Co-create your signal and card. Agree on a pause window. Pack the downgrade kit. Rehearse the exchange (“Got it, I’m with you.”). Check in weekly to tweak the system. Remember, you’re not aiming for zero shutdowns. You’re aiming for shorter, kinder, safer ones. Why This Works Because it matches lived autistic experience (Raymaker et al., 2020; Lewis et al., 2023). Because it honors nervous system limits instead of punishing them (Malik et al., 2019). Because it lets both partners keep their dignity and still solve the problem. In other words: you’re building a marriage that can survive the occasional moments when the words are gone for the time being. Be Well, Stay Kind, and Godspeed. REFERENCES: Hull, L., Mandy, W., Lai, M.-C., Baron-Cohen, S., Allison, C., Smith, P., & Petrides, K. V. (2017). “Putting on my best normal”: Social camouflaging in adults with autism spectrum conditions. Autism, 21(5), 611–622. https://doi.org/10.1177/1362361316671012 Raymaker, D. M., Teo, A. R., Steckler, N. A., Lentz, B., Scharer, M., Delos Santos, A., … & Nicolaidis, C. (2020). “Having all of your internal resources exhausted beyond measure and being left with no clean-up crew”: Defining autistic burnout. Autism in Adulthood, 2(2), 132–143. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2019.0079 Mantzalas, J., Richdale, A. L., Adikari, A., Lowe, J., & Dissanayake, C. (2022). What Is Autistic Burnout? A thematic analysis of posts on two online platforms. Autism in Adulthood, 4(1), 52–65. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2021.0079 Lewis, L. F., et al. (2023). The lived experience of meltdowns for autistic adults. Autism, 27(7), 1787–1799. https://doi.org/10.1177/13623613221145783 Malik, J., et al. (2019). Emotional flooding in response to negative affect in romantic relationships. Journal of Couple & Relationship Therapy, 18(4), 327–349. https://doi.org/10.1080/15332691.2019.1641188 Gottman Institute. (2024, March 4). Making sure emotional flooding doesn’t capsize your relationship. Retrieved from https://www.gottman.com/blog/making-sure-emotional-flooding-doesnt-capsize-your-relationship/

Detailed fact-check analysis of: Autistic Non-Verbal Episodes in Marriage: Why Words Vanish Sometimes and What to Do About It Neurodiverse Couples Tuesday, august 12, 2025. Here’s the scene: You’re in the middle of a conversation with your spouse. Maybe the topic is small (“Did you pay the water bill?”) or monumental (“Are we happy?”). And then—without warning—your autistic partner’s voice disappears. No yelling, no slammed doors. Just… gone. You’re left holding the conversational steering wheel while they’ve quietly climbed into the trunk. If you’ve never lived with high-functioning autism, this can be tragically misconstrued as stonewalling or contempt. It isn’t. It’s just neurology pulling the emergency brake. Why This Happens: The Science Without the Lab Coat Smell For autistic adults, losing speech under stress is often a shutdown—a form of nervous system overload that knocks language production offline. Think of it like your phone freezing: all the apps are still there, but none of them open when you tap. Research calls this autistic burnout when it happens in a longer, chronic cycle—linked to masking (Hull et al., 2017; Raymaker et al., 2020). Masking is the art of “performing normal” so well that non-autistic people think you’re fine. The issue is that it eats through your energy reserves like a car idling in traffic with the A/C on full blast (Mantzalas et al., 2022). Eventually, one hard conversation can tip you from functional to frozen. And here’s where couples therapy meets neuroscience: physiological flooding—the body’s fight/flight/freeze switch—is a known relationship killer (Malik et al., 2019; Gottman Institute, 2024). In other words, for some autistic partners, flooding may tend to show up sooner, last longer, and is more likely to pull the plug on speech entirely. The Danger Loop in Marriage Autistic partner goes non-verbal — brain says “nope.” Non-autistic partner reads it as avoidance — brain says “attack.” Pressure increases — “Just say something.” Shutdown deepens — and now you’ve both lost. Do that a few hundred times and you’ll start conflating a physiological response into a moral failing. That’s the real marriage-killer. The Protocol: Three Phases, Zero Guesswork This is where we get practical. You can’t “love away” a temporary shutdown, but you can stop it from turning into World War III. Before: Build the Net Name the state. Agree on a phrase or signal ( I call this a couple code)—such as “words offline,” “shutdown,” a hand over the heart. The point is to make the invisible visible. The Shutdown Card. A literal card that says: I can’t speak right now. Please lower lights, reduce sound, give me X minutes. I promise I will circle back. The Pause Rule. Require a minimum of 20 minutes before resuming any tough talk. Autistic partner may need 90+. Agree ahead of time. Downgrade Kit. the usual gear; earplugs, soft light, weighted blanket, fidget, a quiet room. You know, human decency in object form. Reduce Daily Load. Avoid heavy talks right after work or big social events. Chronic overload makes a nervous shutdown more probable. During: Do Less, Better Autistic Partner: Give the signal. Exit stimulation. Switch channels if possible (text, notes app, yes/no cards). Send a short pre-written message: “Safe, can’t talk, back at 8:15.” Non-Autistic Partner: Acknowledge once—“Got it, I’m with you.” Hold the pause boundary. Lower stimuli. Go regulate your own nervous system—walk, journal, pet the dog. Don’t rehearse comebacks. Both: Avoid sarcasm, interrogation, ultimatums. Nothing lengthens a shutdown like moral outrage. After: Close the Loop Check in: “Are you ready to talk, or should we start in text?” Debrief: Identify triggers and what helped. Solve the actual problem. No conflict gets left to rot in the corner. Spot burnout early. If shutdowns start clustering, it’s time to reduce demands, not double them. How This Isn’t Stonewalling Stonewalling is a choice. Shutdown is a lockout. Stonewalling says, “I won’t talk to you.” Shutdown says, “I can’t talk to you yet, but I will.” The key difference? Repair intention. A shutdown protocol builds that right into the process. The Ten-Minute At-Home Drill Co-create your signal and card. Agree on a pause window. Pack the downgrade kit. Rehearse the exchange (“Got it, I’m with you.”). Check in weekly to tweak the system. Remember, you’re not aiming for zero shutdowns. You’re aiming for shorter, kinder, safer ones. Why This Works Because it matches lived autistic experience (Raymaker et al., 2020; Lewis et al., 2023). Because it honors nervous system limits instead of punishing them (Malik et al., 2019). Because it lets both partners keep their dignity and still solve the problem. In other words: you’re building a marriage that can survive the occasional moments when the words are gone for the time being. Be Well, Stay Kind, and Godspeed. REFERENCES: Hull, L., Mandy, W., Lai, M.-C., Baron-Cohen, S., Allison, C., Smith, P., & Petrides, K. V. (2017). “Putting on my best normal”: Social camouflaging in adults with autism spectrum conditions. Autism, 21(5), 611–622. https://doi.org/10.1177/1362361316671012 Raymaker, D. M., Teo, A. R., Steckler, N. A., Lentz, B., Scharer, M., Delos Santos, A., … & Nicolaidis, C. (2020). “Having all of your internal resources exhausted beyond measure and being left with no clean-up crew”: Defining autistic burnout. Autism in Adulthood, 2(2), 132–143. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2019.0079 Mantzalas, J., Richdale, A. L., Adikari, A., Lowe, J., & Dissanayake, C. (2022). What Is Autistic Burnout? A thematic analysis of posts on two online platforms. Autism in Adulthood, 4(1), 52–65. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2021.0079 Lewis, L. F., et al. (2023). The lived experience of meltdowns for autistic adults. Autism, 27(7), 1787–1799. https://doi.org/10.1177/13623613221145783 Malik, J., et al. (2019). Emotional flooding in response to negative affect in romantic relationships. Journal of Couple & Relationship Therapy, 18(4), 327–349. https://doi.org/10.1080/15332691.2019.1641188 Gottman Institute. (2024, March 4). Making sure emotional flooding doesn’t capsize your relationship. Retrieved from https://www.gottman.com/blog/making-sure-emotional-flooding-doesnt-capsize-your-relationship/

Aug 12, 2025
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