Fact Check: "Home prices in Phoenix skyrocketed 134% over the past decade."
What We Know
The claim that home prices in Phoenix have increased by 134% over the past decade requires careful examination. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Phoenix experienced a significant surge in home prices in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, but recent data indicates a cooling trend. As of early 2025, home prices in Phoenix grew by only 2.3% over the past year, which is considerably lower than the national average of 4.9% during the same period. Furthermore, the index reported a modest increase of just 0.08% between December 2024 and February 2025, suggesting that the rapid growth seen in previous years has slowed significantly.
Additionally, while certain areas within the Phoenix metro area, such as Carefree, have seen substantial increases—53% in median home prices over the past year—this does not reflect the overall market trend for the entire Phoenix area over the last decade (AZ Central).
Analysis
The claim of a 134% increase in home prices over the past decade may be based on earlier data that reflected a period of rapid growth in the Phoenix housing market. However, the current evidence suggests a more nuanced picture. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicates that while there was significant appreciation in home values, the market has begun to stabilize and even decline in certain months of 2025, with a reported decrease of -1.3% in April 2025.
The reliability of the sources is crucial in assessing this claim. The S&P/Case-Shiller index is a reputable source for tracking home prices and is widely used in real estate analysis. In contrast, anecdotal reports or less formal sources may not provide the same level of accuracy or comprehensiveness. The AZ Central article, which discusses specific areas of the Phoenix metro, provides valuable insights but focuses on localized data rather than the overall market trend.
Moreover, the claim lacks context regarding the time frame and specific metrics used to calculate the 134% increase. Without clear definitions of the starting and ending points of this decade-long increase, it is difficult to verify the claim accurately.
Conclusion
Verdict: Needs Research
The assertion that home prices in Phoenix have skyrocketed by 134% over the past decade lacks sufficient evidence and context to be definitively confirmed. While there has been notable growth in home prices, recent data indicates a shift towards stabilization and even declines in certain areas. Further research is needed to clarify the specifics of the claim, including the time frame and the metrics used to arrive at the 134% figure.
