Fact Check: "High taxes are often cited as a reason for relocation from New York."
What We Know
Recent studies indicate that the claim that high taxes drive wealthy individuals out of New York is not supported by the data. According to a report from the Fiscal Policy Institute, high earners in New York typically leave the state at a rate that is one-quarter that of the general population during non-COVID years. The report also highlights that most high earner migration during the pandemic was primarily due to the ability to work from home and not directly related to tax increases. In fact, after the two most recent tax hikes in 2017 and 2021, there was no significant increase in the migration rates of high earners out of the state (source-2).
Moreover, the report notes that New York saw a net gain of 17,500 millionaire households from 2020 to 2022, despite the loss of 2,400 millionaire households during the same period (source-5). This suggests that the overall trend for high earners is not one of mass exodus due to taxes.
Analysis
The evidence presented by the Fiscal Policy Institute is robust and relies on comprehensive statistical analysis of migration patterns over several years, drawing on data from the U.S. Census Bureau and state tax information (source-2). The report's findings are corroborated by other sources, including an article by Daniel C. Vock, which states that the outflow of wealthy New Yorkers during the pandemic was largely temporary and not driven by tax concerns (source-5).
Critically, the report emphasizes that when high earners do leave, they often relocate to other high-tax states such as New Jersey, Connecticut, or California, rather than moving to states with lower tax burdens (source-5). This further undermines the argument that high taxes are a primary motivator for relocation.
While some anecdotal evidence exists regarding individuals moving to states with lower taxes, the systematic data from the Fiscal Policy Institute indicates that these instances are not representative of a broader trend among high earners. Additionally, the report's conclusions are drawn from a credible and non-partisan source, which enhances its reliability.
Conclusion
Verdict: False
The claim that high taxes are a primary reason for the relocation of wealthy individuals from New York is not substantiated by the available evidence. The data shows that high earners leave New York at a significantly lower rate than the general population, and their migration patterns do not correlate with tax increases. Instead, the trends indicate that the wealthy are more likely to remain in New York or move to other high-tax states, challenging the notion that tax burdens are the driving force behind their relocation.
