Fact Check: "Heatwaves are now 30 times more likely than before the industrial revolution!"
What We Know
The claim that heatwaves are now 30 times more likely than before the industrial revolution is a significant assertion that requires careful examination. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human influence has unequivocally warmed the atmosphere, leading to an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events since the industrial revolution. The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report indicates that the frequency and intensity of hot extremes have increased on a global scale since 1950, with a high confidence level that these changes are primarily due to human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases.
In the UK, the average maximum temperatures have risen, and the length of warm spells has more than doubled since the 1960s, with projections indicating that hotter and drier summers will become more common in the future (source-1). Similarly, in the United States, the frequency of heatwaves has increased from an average of two per year in the 1960s to six per year in the 2010s and 2020s, with the average duration of heatwaves also extending (source-2).
Analysis
While the claim of heatwaves being "30 times more likely" is not directly supported by the available data, there is substantial evidence indicating a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves due to climate change. The IPCC states that the likelihood of extreme heat events has risen significantly, and projections suggest that this trend will continue as global temperatures rise. However, quantifying this increase as "30 times" lacks specific backing in the cited reports.
The data from the US EPA shows a clear upward trend in heatwave frequency and duration over the decades, but it does not provide a direct comparison to pre-industrial levels that would support the "30 times" claim. The increase in heatwave frequency is significant, but the exact multiplier of "30 times" appears to be an extrapolation rather than a precise measurement supported by empirical data.
Furthermore, the reliability of the sources is high, with both the IPCC and the US EPA being authoritative organizations in climate science. Their reports are based on extensive research and peer-reviewed studies, which lend credibility to their findings. However, the interpretation of the data can vary, and claims that lack direct empirical support should be approached with caution.
Conclusion
The claim that heatwaves are now 30 times more likely than before the industrial revolution is Partially True. While there is strong evidence that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves have increased significantly due to climate change, the specific figure of "30 times" is not substantiated by the available data. The increase is indeed substantial, but it is essential to rely on precise measurements and established scientific consensus when making such claims.
