Fact Check: Has Trump completely stopped illegal immigration at the southern border?

Has Trump Completely Stopped Illegal Immigration at the Southern Border?

The claim that former President Donald Trump has completely stopped illegal immigration at the southern border is a contentious topic that has been discussed extensively in political and media circles. This assertion raises questions about the effectiveness of immigration policies implemented during his administration and their lasting impact.

What We Know

1. Immigration Policy Changes: Trump's administration implemented several significant changes to immigration policy, including the deployment of troops to the southern border and a focus on mass deportations. Reports indicate that over 150,000 illegal immigrants were arrested and more than 139,000 deported during his initial months in office 13.

2. Border Encounters: Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) shows that encounters with migrants at the southern border reached approximately 2.5 million in 2023, indicating a significant number of individuals attempting to cross illegally 8. This figure suggests that illegal immigration has not been completely halted.

3. The "Trump Effect": Some sources refer to a phenomenon known as the "Trump Effect," which posits that stricter enforcement and rhetoric around immigration during Trump's presidency may have initially reduced illegal crossings. However, this effect appears to have diminished over time, as illegal crossings began to rise again 49.

4. Policy Reversals and Continuity: Trump's administration ended certain programs that allowed migrants to enter the U.S. legally, which may have contributed to increased illegal crossings. For instance, the cancellation of a border app that facilitated legal entry for migrants resulted in many being stranded in Mexico 6.

5. Public Opinion and Political Context: Public opinion on immigration remains divided, with many Americans expressing concerns about illegal immigration while also supporting pathways to citizenship for certain undocumented individuals 5. This reflects the complexity of the immigration debate and the challenges of implementing effective policies.

Analysis

The sources cited present a mixed picture of Trump's impact on illegal immigration.

• Credibility of Sources: The BBC 1, Reuters 5, and AP News 6 are generally regarded as reliable news organizations, providing fact-checked information. However, the White House's own articles 3 may carry a bias, as they are produced by the administration promoting its policies.

• Conflicting Data: While some sources claim that illegal immigration decreased during Trump's early presidency, others highlight that the numbers have surged again, particularly in 2023 89. This discrepancy raises questions about the long-term effectiveness of the policies enacted.

• Methodological Concerns: The statistics regarding arrests and deportations may not fully capture the complexities of immigration patterns. For example, the numbers do not account for individuals who may have successfully crossed the border undetected or those who were deterred by enforcement measures.

• Need for Additional Information: A deeper analysis of the motivations behind migration trends, including economic and social factors in migrants' home countries, would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the issue. Additionally, longitudinal studies examining the long-term effects of Trump's policies compared to those of subsequent administrations would be beneficial.

Conclusion

Verdict: False

The assertion that former President Trump has completely stopped illegal immigration at the southern border is false. Key evidence supporting this conclusion includes the significant number of encounters with migrants at the border, which reached approximately 2.5 million in 2023, indicating that illegal immigration has not been halted. While some policies may have had temporary effects on crossing rates, the overall trend shows a resurgence in illegal immigration, particularly after initial decreases.

It is important to recognize the complexity of immigration issues, which are influenced by a multitude of factors beyond policy changes, including economic conditions in migrants' home countries and the evolving political landscape. Furthermore, the available data has limitations, as it may not fully capture the nuances of immigration patterns, such as those who cross undetected.

Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information regarding immigration and consider the broader context and ongoing developments in this multifaceted issue.

Sources

1. BBC. Six big immigration changes under Trump - and their impact so far. Link
2. Brookings. 100 days of immigration under the second Trump administration. Link
3. White House. PROMISES MADE, PROMISES KEPT: Border Security Achieved in Fewer Than 100 Days. Link
4. Homeland House Committee. BORDER BRIEF: The “Trump Effect” is Here. Link
5. Reuters. Trump touts immigration crackdown despite concerns. Link
6. AP News. What has changed with immigration under Trump and what is still playing out. Link
7. New York Times. Fact-Checking Trump's Recent Immigration Claims. Link
8. NPR. Immigrants hit record numbers at the border as candidates debate. Link
9. PBS. Fact-checking the Trump White House's claims about illegal immigration. Link
10. Migration Policy Institute. In First 100 Days, Trump 2.0 Has Dramatic Impact on Immigration. Link