Fact Check: "German intelligence now assesses an 80-95% likelihood of a lab origin of Covid-19."
What We Know
Recent reports indicate that Germany's foreign intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), assessed in 2020 that there was an 80-90% chance that the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic leaked accidentally from a laboratory, specifically the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This information was uncovered by German media outlets and revealed that the BND had indications of safety violations at the lab during experiments aimed at modifying viruses to be more transmissible to humans (BBC, Reuters).
The assessment, which was part of an operation called Project Saaremaa, was reportedly shared with the CIA but was not made public until recently. The BND's findings were commissioned by the office of then-Chancellor Angela Merkel, but the details remained classified until now (BBC, DW).
The lab leak theory has been a contentious topic, with the World Health Organization (WHO) concluding in early 2021 that the lab-leak hypothesis was "extremely unlikely" after a visit to Wuhan (BBC). However, the narrative has shifted over time, with some intelligence agencies, including the CIA, suggesting a lab-related origin is more plausible than a natural zoonotic spillover (BBC, Reuters).
Analysis
The claim that German intelligence assesses an 80-95% likelihood of a lab origin of COVID-19 is partially true. The BND did indeed report a likelihood of 80-90% for a lab leak in 2020, as confirmed by multiple sources including the BBC and Reuters (BBC, Reuters). However, the upper limit of 95% mentioned in some discussions appears to be an extrapolation or misinterpretation of the BND's original assessment, which consistently cited an 80-90% range without definitive proof (DW).
The reliability of the sources reporting this information is generally high, as they include established news organizations like the BBC and Reuters, which are known for their journalistic standards. However, the interpretation of the BND's findings can vary, and the lack of definitive evidence for a lab leak remains a critical point of contention among scientists and intelligence agencies alike. The WHO's earlier conclusion that a lab leak was "extremely unlikely" adds complexity to the narrative, as it reflects a significant scientific consensus that contradicts the intelligence assessments (BBC).
Moreover, the ongoing debate about the origins of COVID-19 has led to a polarized discourse, with various stakeholders interpreting the evidence to support their views. This creates a challenging environment for establishing a clear consensus on the matter.
Conclusion
The claim that "German intelligence now assesses an 80-95% likelihood of a lab origin of Covid-19" is partially true. While the BND did assess a likelihood of 80-90% for a lab leak, the assertion of a 95% likelihood lacks direct support from the original intelligence reports. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing investigations and debates about the origins of the virus, reflecting a broader uncertainty in the scientific and intelligence communities.
