Fact Check: "Gasoline prices could jump as much as 25 cents a gallon in the coming weeks"
What We Know
The claim that gasoline prices could jump as much as 25 cents a gallon in the coming weeks is based on various forecasts and historical data regarding gasoline prices. According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook released on June 10, 2025, retail gasoline prices in the U.S. are projected to average $3.14 per gallon in the third quarter of 2025, which is a decrease of 7% compared to the same time the previous year. This suggests a potential stabilization or decrease in prices rather than a significant increase.
In 2023, U.S. annual average retail gasoline prices were reported to be $0.43 per gallon lower than in 2022, with an average price of $3.52 per gallon for regular-grade gasoline throughout the year. The prices peaked at $3.88 per gallon in mid-September 2023 but ended the year at $3.05 per gallon, indicating a downward trend towards the end of the year (EIA).
Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that gasoline prices in specific regions, such as Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, averaged $3.157 per gallon in December 2024, showing a decrease from the previous year. This regional data supports the notion that prices have been declining rather than increasing.
Analysis
The claim regarding a potential jump in gasoline prices lacks substantial support from current data and forecasts. The Short-Term Energy Outlook indicates a trend of decreasing prices, and the average price of gasoline as of June 10, 2025, was reported at $3.121 per gallon, down from $3.445 a year ago (NerdWallet). This suggests that rather than experiencing a jump, prices are currently on a downward trajectory.
Moreover, while there are fluctuations in gasoline prices due to seasonal demand and refinery production, the historical context shows that significant price increases (like 25 cents) are not typical without substantial external factors, such as geopolitical events or natural disasters. The data indicates that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend has been towards lower prices, especially when compared to the peaks seen in 2022.
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is high, as they include government reports from the EIA and BLS, which are reputable organizations known for their accurate and comprehensive data collection. However, the claim itself appears to be speculative and not grounded in the current market realities.
Conclusion
Needs Research. The assertion that gasoline prices could jump as much as 25 cents a gallon in the coming weeks does not align with the current data and forecasts available. The trend indicates a decrease in prices rather than an increase, suggesting that further research and monitoring of market conditions are necessary to validate any claims of significant price hikes.
Sources
- Short-Term Energy Outlook
- In 2023, U.S. annual average retail gasoline prices were ...
- Average Energy Prices, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria
- Gas Prices Are Falling — That's Unusual for Spring
- US Retail Gas Price (I:USRGP)
- The Real World: Climate Commitment Act and Gas Prices
- U.S. monthly gasoline retail prices by type 2025
- The Real-World: Climate Commitment Act and Gas Prices
