Fact Check: Experts Warn Early Voting Surge May Not Indicate New Voter Engagement
What We Know
As the 2024 election approaches, early voting has surged, with millions of ballots already cast across the United States. According to a report, over 62.7 million voters had submitted their ballots by early November, marking a significant increase compared to previous elections (BBC, 2024) [2]. However, experts caution that this surge may not necessarily reflect new voter engagement. Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science, notes that while early voting has historically boosted participation, the current increase may be influenced by factors other than heightened voter enthusiasm, such as changes in voting habits post-COVID-19 (Northeastern University, 2024) [1].
Data from the 2020 election revealed that early voting was heavily utilized due to pandemic-related concerns, with about 70% of the total votes cast before Election Day (Northeastern University, 2024) [1]. In contrast, early voting numbers for 2024, while substantial, are still below the record set in 2020. This trend suggests that while more people are voting early, it might not indicate a significant increase in overall voter engagement compared to previous years (BBC, 2024) [2].
Analysis
The claim that the early voting surge may not indicate new voter engagement is supported by several observations. For instance, while early voting participation has increased compared to 2016 and 2012, it remains lower than the unprecedented levels seen in 2020 (BBC, 2024) [2]. This discrepancy raises questions about whether the current surge is a continuation of pandemic-era voting habits rather than a sign of increased civic engagement.
Moreover, the demographic breakdown of early voters shows a complex picture. Reports indicate that Republicans are increasingly participating in early voting, with their share rising from 30.5% in 2020 to 36.1% in 2024 (New York Times, 2025) [3]. This shift could suggest a normalization of early voting among Republicans, who previously expressed skepticism about mail-in ballots. However, the overall increase in early voting does not necessarily correlate with new voters entering the electoral process; rather, it may reflect a shift in the voting strategies of existing voters (Associated Press, 2024) [4].
Additionally, the early voting data lacks clarity regarding which candidates voters support, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about the implications of early voting on election outcomes (Los Angeles Times, 2024) [5]. As such, while the numbers are impressive, they do not provide a complete picture of voter engagement.
Conclusion
The claim that experts warn the early voting surge may not indicate new voter engagement is Partially True. While early voting has indeed surged, the evidence suggests that this increase may be more reflective of changing voting habits rather than a significant rise in new voter participation. Factors such as the normalization of early voting among different political demographics and the lingering effects of the pandemic play crucial roles in shaping these trends.
