Fact Check: Experts Warn DMSP Data Loss Could Lead to Deadly Hurricane Mispredictions
What We Know
Recent reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) plans to discontinue data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), which has raised significant concerns among meteorologists and climate scientists. The data collected by these satellites is crucial for hurricane forecasting, particularly in providing insights into storm intensity and structure that cannot be obtained from traditional satellite imagery (AP News).
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has stated that this decision is part of a "routine process of data rotation and replacement" and that remaining data sources will still provide adequate forecasting capabilities (AP News). However, experts argue that the loss of DMSP data, which accounts for a substantial portion of the information used in hurricane models, could severely impair the accuracy of forecasts. For instance, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry noted that the reduction in microwave data could lead to missed rapid intensification events and mispredictions of storm paths (AP News).
Analysis
The discontinuation of DMSP data has been met with alarm from various experts in the field. Marc Alessi from the Union of Concerned Scientists emphasized that the inability to monitor rapid intensification of storms at night could lead to inadequate warnings for communities at risk (AP News). Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, described the situation as "alarmingly bad news," indicating that the abrupt loss of functioning satellites is a significant setback for hurricane forecasting (AP News).
Critically, while NOAA maintains that other data sources will suffice, experts like Lowry argue that these alternatives will not provide the same level of detail, thus increasing the risk of inaccurate forecasts (AP News). The potential for mispredictions could have dire consequences for millions of Americans living in hurricane-prone areas, especially as climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of storms (AP News; The Guardian).
The credibility of the sources reporting on this issue, including the Associated Press and The Guardian, is high, as they are established news organizations known for their rigorous journalistic standards. The concerns raised by experts are corroborated by multiple reports, reinforcing the validity of the claim that the loss of DMSP data could lead to deadly mispredictions in hurricane forecasting.
Conclusion
The claim that experts warn the loss of DMSP data could lead to deadly hurricane mispredictions is True. The evidence indicates that the discontinuation of this critical data source is likely to impair the accuracy of hurricane forecasts, potentially endangering lives and property along vulnerable coastlines. The consensus among meteorologists and climate scientists underscores the severity of this issue, particularly in the context of an increasingly volatile climate.
Sources
- The government cuts key data used in hurricane forecasting, and experts sound an alarm
- Trump terminates satellite data considered crucial to storm forecasting
- Sudden loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasts into chaos
- Hurricane experts express concern over satellite data loss impacting forecasts
