Fact Check: El kirchnerismo manipuló las estadísticas del INDEC.

El kirchnerismo manipuló las estadísticas del INDEC

Introduction

The claim that "El kirchnerismo manipuló las estadísticas del INDEC" (Kirchnerism manipulated the statistics of INDEC) refers to allegations that the Argentine government under Néstor Kirchner and later Cristina Fernández de Kirchner altered official economic data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) between 2007 and 2015. This assertion has been a topic of significant debate and scrutiny, particularly regarding its implications for economic policy and public trust in governmental institutions.

What We Know

1. Intervention of INDEC: INDEC was officially intervened in early 2007 when the Kirchner administration replaced its leadership. This change was part of a broader strategy to control economic data, particularly inflation and poverty statistics, which were seen as politically sensitive 45.

2. Allegations of Data Manipulation: Reports indicate that during this period, the government was accused of "statistical blackout" or "apagón estadístico," where official statistics were allegedly manipulated to present a more favorable economic picture. This included claims of inflated GDP figures and underreported inflation rates 3510.

3. Consequences of Manipulation: The manipulation of statistics reportedly led to significant economic repercussions, including a loss of credibility for INDEC and challenges in economic planning and policy formulation. A 2024 report suggested that the distortions could cost the Argentine state approximately USD 337 million due to the long-term effects of these falsified data 8.

4. Legal Actions: Guillermo Moreno, a key figure in the manipulation of INDEC statistics, has faced legal scrutiny for his role in these practices. His actions have been described as emblematic of the broader issues of transparency and accountability within the Kirchner administration 6.

Analysis

The sources discussing the claim of manipulation of INDEC statistics vary in credibility and potential bias.

• Credible Sources:

  • Infobae and Clarín are established Argentine news outlets with a history of reporting on economic issues. They provide detailed accounts of the timeline and consequences of the alleged manipulation, citing specific examples of altered statistics 3510. However, both outlets may have a center-right bias, which could influence their portrayal of the Kirchner administration.
  • BBC Mundo offers a more neutral perspective, discussing the broader implications of the manipulation and the subsequent government efforts to restore credibility to INDEC after the Kirchner era 2.

• Potential Bias:

  • Perfil and La Nación also report on the manipulation but may lean towards a critical stance against Kirchnerism, which could color their interpretation of events 68.
  • The Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT) article provides an academic perspective, analyzing the economic costs of the manipulation, but it is essential to consider the institution's potential biases, as it may have a more favorable view of neoliberal economic policies 1.

• Methodological Concerns: Many of the claims about manipulation rely on retrospective analyses of economic data, which can be contentious. Critics of the Kirchner administration often cite specific statistics, but these figures can be subject to interpretation and debate. Further, the lack of access to original data during the manipulation period complicates definitive assessments of the extent of the alleged alterations.

Conclusion

Verdict: True

The evidence supports the claim that the Kirchner administration manipulated the statistics of INDEC. Key indicators of this manipulation include the intervention of INDEC in 2007, allegations of a "statistical blackout," and the subsequent economic repercussions, including a significant loss of credibility for the institution. Reports from credible sources highlight the extent of the alterations made to economic data, particularly concerning inflation and GDP figures.

However, it is important to acknowledge the limitations in the available evidence. Much of the analysis relies on retrospective evaluations, which can be contentious and subject to interpretation. Additionally, potential biases in the reporting sources may influence the portrayal of events.

Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information and consider multiple perspectives when assessing claims of statistical manipulation, particularly in politically charged contexts.

Sources

1. Cuál fue el costo de la manipulación. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Link
2. ¿Por qué es tan difícil que Argentina vuelva a tener un...? BBC Mundo. Link
3. A 15 años de la intervención del Indec: cómo se decidió... Infobae. Link
4. ¿Qué fue la intervención del INDEC y cómo impactó en los datos? Chequeado. Link
5. La manipulación del INDEC, una marca registrada del kirchnerismo. Clarín. Link
6. Moreno y el Indec: ecos de una mentira que duró más de ocho años. La Nación. Link
7. Historia. INDEC. Link
8. La manipulación de datos del kirchnerismo en el Indec le... Perfil. Link
9. La manipulación del INDEC, una marca registrada del... Clarín. Link
10. El kirchnerismo "dibujó" casi 20 puntos de más en el PBI... Infobae. Link