Fact Check: Economic upheaval can affect political approval ratings
What We Know
The claim that "economic upheaval can affect political approval ratings" is supported by various studies and analyses. A significant paper by Gómez-Méndez and Hansen investigates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and presidential approval in four Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. Their findings indicate that economic policy uncertainty negatively impacts presidential approval ratings, with a one-standard-deviation increase in economic uncertainty leading to approximately a 12% decrease in approval ratings (source-1). This aligns with established political economy models which suggest that voters are less likely to support incumbents during periods of economic uncertainty.
Furthermore, literature on economic perceptions and political approval indicates that citizens often prioritize the state of the economy when evaluating government performance (source-1). In the U.S., for example, economic conditions have been shown to correlate strongly with presidential approval ratings, as demonstrated by various polls and studies (source-6, source-7).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim is robust, particularly from the study conducted by Gómez-Méndez and Hansen, which utilizes empirical data and sophisticated statistical methods to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on presidential approval (source-1). The authors employ a panel data approach, which enhances the reliability of their findings by accounting for variations across different countries and time periods.
Moreover, the study's conclusion that economic uncertainty leads to decreased approval ratings is consistent with broader trends observed in both high-income and low-income economies. For instance, in the U.S., fluctuations in economic confidence have been directly linked to changes in presidential approval ratings, particularly during times of economic distress (source-6, source-8).
However, it is important to note that while the evidence is compelling, the relationship can be influenced by other factors, such as political scandals or foreign policy crises, which can also affect public perception and approval ratings. The complexity of voter behavior means that while economic conditions are a significant factor, they are not the sole determinant of political approval.
Conclusion
The claim that economic upheaval can affect political approval ratings is True. The evidence from empirical studies, particularly in the context of Latin American countries, demonstrates a clear negative correlation between economic policy uncertainty and presidential approval ratings. This relationship is further supported by findings from high-income economies, including the U.S., where economic conditions significantly influence public perceptions of government performance.
Sources
- Economic policy uncertainty and presidential approval: Evidence from Latin America - Link
- محافظة خليص - ويكيبيديا - Link
- Cyprus - Wikipedia - Link
- قائمة الدول والتبعيات حسب المساحة - ويكيبيديا - Link
- قبرص - ويكيبيديا - Link
- Economic ratings and concerns | Pew Research Center - Link
- U.S. Economic Confidence Slightly Improved, Still Negative - Link
- Trump approval ratings fall on economic turmoil, poll finds - Link
