Fact Check: During the first trump administration, the stock market grew in value by 88%

The Claim: "During the first Trump administration, the stock market grew in value by 88%"

Introduction

The assertion that the stock market grew in value by 88% during Donald Trump's first term as President of the United States has circulated in various discussions about his economic legacy. This claim requires careful examination to determine its accuracy and the context surrounding it.

What We Know

1. Time Frame: Donald Trump served as President from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021. The stock market performance is typically measured using indices such as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

2. Stock Market Performance: According to multiple sources, the S&P 500 index increased by approximately 67.3% during Trump's presidency, from the beginning of 2017 to the end of 2020 5. Other reports indicate a rise of over 50% for the S&P 500 during this same period 3.

3. Annualized Returns: The annualized return of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during Trump's presidency was reported to be around 12.1% 6. This figure is comparable to the returns seen during previous administrations, such as Obama and Clinton.

4. Market Volatility: The stock market experienced significant volatility during Trump's term, influenced by various factors including trade wars, tax reforms, and the COVID-19 pandemic 4.

5. Comparison to Other Presidents: Historical data indicates that the stock market has fluctuated under different administrations, with varying growth rates. For example, the S&P 500 saw a notable increase of 27% in George H.W. Bush's first year 8.

Analysis

The claim of an 88% increase in stock market value during Trump's first term appears to be an exaggeration when compared to the available data. The most credible sources indicate that the actual growth was around 67.3% for the S&P 500, which is significantly lower than the claimed figure.

1. Source Reliability: The sources cited include reputable news organizations such as The New York Times 2, Reuters 3, and CNN 8, which are generally considered reliable. However, the interpretation of stock market data can vary based on the metrics used (e.g., S&P 500 vs. Dow Jones) and the time frame considered.

2. Potential Bias: Some sources may have a political bias, which could influence how they present stock market data. For instance, sources that are more favorable to Trump may emphasize positive aspects of his economic policies without acknowledging the broader context of market fluctuations.

3. Methodology Concerns: The methodology for calculating stock market growth must be scrutinized. Claims that aggregate figures without specifying the indices or time frames can lead to misleading conclusions. For example, a claim of an 88% increase may arise from selective data points or misinterpretation of market trends.

4. Conflicts of Interest: Some financial analysts or commentators may have vested interests in promoting a particular narrative about Trump's economic performance, which could affect the objectivity of their assessments.

Conclusion

Verdict: False

The claim that the stock market grew in value by 88% during Donald Trump's first term is false. The most credible data indicates that the S&P 500 index increased by approximately 67.3% during this period, which is significantly lower than the asserted figure. This discrepancy highlights the importance of relying on accurate and comprehensive data when discussing economic performance.

It is essential to consider the context of stock market performance, including the volatility experienced during Trump's presidency due to various external factors. While the stock market did see notable growth, attributing a specific percentage increase without clear and consistent metrics can lead to misleading conclusions.

However, it is important to acknowledge the limitations of the available evidence. Different indices and varying time frames can yield different results, and the interpretation of data can be influenced by political biases. Therefore, readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information and seek out reliable sources when assessing claims related to economic performance.

Sources

1. ICYMI: Secretary Scott Bessent's Interview with Tucker. U.S. Department of the Treasury. Link
2. The Stock Market Was One of Trump's Favorite Talking Points. The New York Times. Link
3. Trump's stock market: A wild four years. Reuters. Link
4. Stock Market Under the Trump Administration | U.S. Bank. Link
5. How Did the Stock Market Perform Under Biden vs Trump's First Term? Yahoo Finance. Link
6. Here's How the Stock Market Performed Under President Donald Trump. Business Insider. Link
7. How Donald Trump's stock market performance compares to Joe Biden. Newsweek. Link
8. Stock market performance by president, from Reagan to Trump. CNN. Link
9. Chart Shows How Stock Market Is Faring Compared to Trump's First Term. Newsweek. Link
10. Here's how the stock market performed under President Donald Trump. Business Insider. Link